Chepstow — 18 August 2026

Class 6 · 1m4f · Good To Firm · 2 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Hope Rising (1/6)

Won by: Hope Rising (IRE) at 1/16F

What we said: the write-up made a claim the racecard does not support, so this pick was withheld

Class 4 · 5f16y · Good To Firm · 8 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Soeur De Flash (11/8)

Won by: Impulsive Spirit (IRE) at 14/1 · then Kokumi (FR), Soeur De Flash (GB)

What we said: Soeur De Flash sets the standard on fair form logic and the drop back to 5f from a 3rd at 6f is the obvious peg for her price, but that trip-drop case is exactly the sort of thing the market has already worked into her odds, leaving no daylight for my own number above hers; Delighfully Hot is the closest thing to a genuine rival on solid course form (2/8 same C&D 25 days ago, strong course trainer stats) but Billy Loughnane's recent booking record works against rather than for backing him at this price, and with two fairly-matched principals and nothing else standing out among the rest of the field this is one to watch rather than punt.

Class 3 · 7f16y · Good To Firm · 6 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Grove Street (4/6)

Won by: Avionics (IRE) at 13/2 · then Grove Street (GB)

What we said: the only runner in the field with a placed effort under today's exact conditions, finishing second over this same 7f trip on good-to-firm ground just 20 days ago, and stepping back into an identical test today. No rival here shows anything close to that level of proven form at this trip and going, making this the clearest form case in a small maiden field.

Class 6 · 1m14y · Good To Firm · 8 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Look Back Smiling (5/2)

Won by: Rating (IRE) at 7/2 · then Risen Again (FR), Scarfo (IRE)

What we said: Look Back Smiling carries the best figure in the race (PR74, clear of the next-best PR69) and its dam-line suits today's quick ground, but it's dropping back in trip having been held up last time and the market already rates it a clear favourite at 5/2, leaving no gap between what I'd price it and what it's trading at; Rating arrives on identical course/distance/going to a very recent run while Risen Again drops back to a trip that should suit its pace figure, so with three legitimate cases and nothing decisively separating them at these prices this is one to watch rather than back.

Class 5 · 7f16y · Good To Firm · 7 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Rogue Exile (5/2)

Won by: Too Much Trevor (GB) at 9/1 · then Von Trotter (GB)

What we said: Four runners arrive on genuine upward form lines (Rogue Exile, Espona Bay, Von Trotter and Honky Tonk Girl all won last time out), and none separates itself clearly enough on class, trip or ground to make a stand at the price on offer; Rogue Exile's course figures and recent trainer form are the most rounded profile but it's already priced tight enough that there's no edge left for me at 5/2, and Chepstow handicaps have been a weak festival for this approach lately. Too Much Trevor's market move is notable but his finishing position last time (3rd, not a win) and cold yard form leave the steam unsupported by the form book.

Class 6 · 6f16y · Good To Firm · 10 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Arnaz (9/4)

Won by: Arnaz (GB) at 6/5F · then Some Nightmare (IRE), Connie's Rose (GB)

What we said: Arnaz looks the one to beat on pure form, backing up quickly after a course-and-distance win nine days ago with a sire line that thrives on this fast surface, but his price already reflects that story and Billy Loughnane's booking carries a recent losing pattern that tempers the case; Calafrio (fresh course-and-distance winner last time) and the steamed Connie's Rose (front-running type, consistent placer) both have live claims of their own, and this track has been a poor hunting ground for picks lately, so there's no single runner worth backing at the price on offer.