Saturday 19 September · Draw bias, computed from real settled results — not model output
Chester
Over the 200 days of results to 14 Jul 2026, horses drawn in the lowest third of stalls at Chester won 10% of the time, against just 5% for those drawn widest — a 5-point gap across 20 qualifying races (60 runners drawn low, 60 drawn wide).
Based on 20 races with 8+ runners · computed from real settled results, not model output.
General draw-bias knowledge
Up to 8f: Extremely tight left-handed circuit — the 5f start is almost on the turn, and low (inside) draws are traditionally favoured, with wide draws giving up ground.
9f+: Even at staying trips the constant turn gives low (inside) draws a modest edge.
General course knowledge, independent of our own results above — where our own sample is still thin, we show both rather than quietly pick a winner.
Chester race card →
Ayr
Over the 200 days of results to 14 Jul 2026, horses drawn in the highest third of stalls at Ayr won 11% of the time, against just 8% for those drawn lowest — a 3-point gap across 18 qualifying races (53 runners drawn low, 53 drawn wide).
Based on 18 races with 8+ runners · computed from real settled results, not model output.
Ayr race card →
Newbury
Over the 200 days of results to 14 Jul 2026, horses drawn in the lowest third of stalls at Newbury won 8% of the time, against just 4% for those drawn widest — a 4-point gap across 25 qualifying races (95 runners drawn low, 95 drawn wide).
Based on 25 races with 8+ runners · computed from real settled results, not model output.
Newbury race card →
Newmarket
Over the 200 days of results to 14 Jul 2026, horses drawn in the highest third of stalls at Newmarket won 13% of the time, against just 10% for those drawn lowest — a 3-point gap across 31 qualifying races (93 runners drawn low, 93 drawn wide).
Based on 31 races with 8+ runners · computed from real settled results, not model output.
Newmarket race card →
Navan
No meaningful draw bias at Navan over the 200 days to 14 Jul 2026 — low and high draws have won at close to the same rate across 14 qualifying races.
Based on 14 races with 8+ runners · computed from real settled results, not model output.
Navan race card →
Gowran Park
No meaningful draw bias at Gowran Park over the 200 days to 14 Jul 2026 — low and high draws have won at close to the same rate across 17 qualifying races.
Based on 17 races with 8+ runners · computed from real settled results, not model output.
Gowran Park race card →
Newcastle
No meaningful draw bias at Newcastle over the 200 days to 14 Jul 2026 — low and high draws have won at close to the same rate across 110 qualifying races.
Based on 110 races with 8+ runners · computed from real settled results, not model output.
Newcastle race card →
Every finding on this page is arithmetic over real, settled race results — not something our AI model generated. We compute draw-bias win rates per course from 200 days of results and publish the number whether or not it's exciting, including courses with no meaningful bias at all.
