Every AI tip · profit to 1pt level stakes
Every tip we've ever published, every tier, win or lose — nothing held back.
260/827
Winners · rate depends on price
+72.38
Points (1pt level stakes)
Return at 1pt level stakes
+8.1%
The dot is the measured return. The line is where the true figure plausibly sits.
95% range across 740 settled picks, resampled from the actual results rather than assumed to be bell-shaped. It includes zero, so this record is not yet distinguishable from breakeven.
740 settled picks · every published tip, funded or not
33%
Win-only strike rate · 205/622 picks
tips: 102 of 205 returned something — a win or a place. Not a win rate, and not counted as one anywhere in the record above.
Closing Line Value · since 1 Jul 2026
Do our prices beat the Betfair closing price? The average can be dragged up by a few big drifters, so the honest number is how OFTEN we beat the close. Under 50% counts against us, whatever the average says.
Measured on the bets we placed, not on every published tip — they are the only ones carrying a closing price.
+1.4%
Avg. CLV
vs Betfair close
46.5%
Beat the close
40/86 bets
CLV across 86 settled bets, shown win or lose, measured against the Betfair close and reported whichever way it goes.
Recent Form
Last 30 days
-23.93pts
107/368 · 29% · -6% ROI
Record
827 tips settled
Cumulative P&L
+72.38pts
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Tips | W-P-L | Win% | P&L (pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26 | 67 | 25-0-42 | 37% | +1.56 | +2% |
| Jul 26 | 366 | 108-7-251 | 30% | -20.07 | -5% |
| Jun 26 | 394 | 127-40-227 | 32% | +90.89 | +22% |
ROI by month
Confidence Calibration
When we say X%, how often do we win?
said 72% · 7 picks, 4.1 effective
said 63.1% · 65 picks, 38 effective
said 55.2% · 103 picks, 60.4 effective
said 38% · 224 picks, 141.8 effective
Vertical line = what we actually predicted in that band. Bar = win rate since, weighted toward recent results, so the effective sample is smaller than the raw count.
Board record by price band
Never pooled into one figure. A band of short favourites wins more often because it is short — only the gap against what the market expected compares across rows.
| Price | Won | Strike | Market | Gap | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds-on (under evens) | 24/35 | 68.6% | 62.7% | +5.8 | 61.6% |
| Evens to 2/1 | 18/38 | 47.4% | 39.8% | +7.5 | 39.2% |
| 2/1 to 4/1 | 20/61 | 32.8% | 24.1% | +8.7 | 23.6% |
| 4/1 to 6/1 | 2/28 | 7.1% | 16.3% | -9.2 | 16.2% |
| Over 6/1 (above cap) | 2/19 | 10.5% | 10.7% | -0.2 | 9.6% |
Samples per band are small — read the gap, not the strike rate, and read neither as settled.
Several figures appear across this site and they measure different things. Here they are together, each one put through the same calculation at 1pt level stakes.
Roughly, each row is wider than the one below it in what it demanded: we publish a read on every race, some clear the bar to be worth betting, and we stake a subset of those.
Board picks
The picks we actually put money on. Fewer than qualified — a daily cap until 3 July, and since then prices that moved or fell outside the band we bet.
Every published tip
Every pick we published, including the ones that never qualified. Most of these were never bettable.
Attributed to a course
The total across all 90 course pages. A tip counts once per course page it appears on, so this is deliberately not a count of distinct tips.
Closing line value sits outside this table because it is not a return: +1.4% mean against the closing exchange price across 86 priced bets, beating the close on 46.5% of them. Measured against Betfair SP rather than bookmaker SP, which carries the overround and flatters this figure. How we measure.
Recomputed on every visit · every AI tip · profit to 1pt level stakes
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