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Blog — the weekly log

How the model's actually doing, written up once a week from the real numbers.

2026-07-28

A rough week, and why the 5/2+ picks got a haircut

Eight winners from 25 this week. 32% win rate, which is exactly in line with where the model's been running all year, but the losses this time were expensive enough that flat-stake P&L came out at -£6.74, or -27% ROI for…

2026-07-20

A small green week, and cutting off the long shots

This week's picks went 8W 0P 13L from 21 races, 38% winners, for +£3.17 at flat stakes — a +13% ROI week. That's a good week on its own, but I want to be honest about scale: it's £3.17 on 1-point stakes, and the all-time…

2026-07-20

6 Winners, 13 Losers, and Still Green for the Week

19 value picks settled between 11 and 18 July. 6 winners, 0 places, 13 losers. That's a 32% win rate, which is actually bang in line with where the model's sat for a while now, all-time it's 32% across 168 picks too. Wha…