16:56 Curragh To Curragh Charity Cycle On 29th August Maiden Hurdle
Placed2m0f0y · Good · 17 ran
Our bet: First Ascent (10/3)
Won by: Puppet Master (IRE) at 5/1 · then Kimi De Mai (FR), First Ascent (IRE)
What we said: Last time out he was second at this same course, trip and going, and his form line of 3-2-3-5-4-2 shows a horse who keeps putting himself into contention rather than one-off luck; the damsire line is flagged as excelling on today's good ground, which fits a horse who has now finished in the frame three times over C&D-type conditions. Jack Kennedy takes the ride for Gordon Elliott and the profile — proven at the track, on the trip, and on this surface — gives him a stronger case than most in a wide-open maiden field.
17:32 Follow Kilbeggan On Instagram Novice Hurdle
We named the winner2m2f200y · Good · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: La Cote Fleurie (9/4)
Won by: La Cote Fleurie (FR) at 100/30 · then Mino Des Mottes (FR), Rosie's Wings (IRE)
What we said: Three runners here have genuine claims and nothing separates them enough to bet: La Cote Fleurie brings the best form figures (1-31) and a trip cut that should suit, but she's off an 85-day break with her only recorded return from a lay-off a loss; Mino Des Mottes arrives in career-best heart (202-12, unbeaten for two runs on this ground) but is stepping up in trip for the first time; Rosie's Wings has the strongest course form (63) but is dropping back in trip off a moderate recent yard spell. Facile Ocean's course record (2321) and market support are tempting but he's just a 5lb-claimer away from his customary conditions and the market has already done the work on him.
18:05 Tom Lynam Memorial Handicap Hurdle
Did not win2m2f200y · Good · 19 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Mysilverriverfeale (15/2)
Won by: Bhean Saibhre (IRE) at 12/1 · then Cloonainra (IRE), Blue Reed (FR)
What we said: Nineteen runners in a competitive handicap hurdle with at least five horses carrying legitimate claims — Magic Day fresh off a course-and-distance runner-up, Mysilverriverfeale unbeaten in its last two starts over this trip and going, Parkgarve rattling home last time with the quickest recorded pace figure in the field, Pride Of Place the highest-rated but dropping a big chunk of trip, and Diamond Tipp adding first-time headgear off a solid second — none of them separates cleanly enough to back at the prices on offer. With four market drifters (Somersby Roost, Secret Rock, Paul Collins, Kome Dans Un Reve) also in the mix, this is exactly the kind of big, messy handicap that chews up single-horse convictions.
18:35 Peadar's Bar Moate Maiden Hurdle
We named the winner3m0f170y · Good · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Dad Sez (8/11)
Won by: Dad Sez (IRE) at 4/6F · then Go To The Moon (IRE), L'as De Watt (FR)
What we said: Dad Sez looks the one to beat on placing alone (Elliott/Kennedy, stepping up in trip after an unseat-then-fifth effort) but he's already short enough that there's no working angle for me at the price, and Benner Wenner's solid second last time isn't enough on its own to swing the case his way. The rest of the field — Go To The Moon quick-backing-up on 2 days, L'As de Watt's first-time tongue strap, and the big-priced maidens — all carry real question marks that keep this one unclear rather than betable.
19:05 New Forest Estate & Golf Club Handicap Steeplechase
Did not win3m1f180y · Good · 14 ran
We passed. Likely winner: One Way Traffic (4/1)
Won by: Fr Gilligansvoyge (GB) at 6/1 · then Gorthill (FR), Deadheat (FR)
What we said: Fourteen-runner handicap chases are exactly the trap this system keeps losing in, and nothing here clears the bar: One Way Traffic carries top weight and has never raced on good ground in 15 starts despite today's firm-leaning surface, Our Zebo returns from 336 days off with fitness genuinely unknown, and Broken Ice's recent third is solid but his going record is a scattergun of extremes with no standout C&D form to lean on. Lecale's Diamond adds cheekpieces and a tongue strap for the first time, which is an admission something needs fixing, not a reason to back him blind.
19:35 Belvedere House & Gardens Handicap Steeplechase
Placed3m1f180y · Good · 9 ran
Our bet: Charlie Luciano (4/1)
Won by: A Wave Of The Sea (IRE) at 9/1 · then Charlie Luciano (IRE), Granville Street (IRE)
What we said: Two wins from five starts at this course (13341) mark him out as a track specialist, and with a solid recent effort behind him (0P-414) he looks the type to appreciate this trip if he settles. The step up to 3m1f is unproven for him but his form figures at this course carry real weight, and the extra vote of confidence from a 7lb claimer taking some pounds off makes the sums work at today's price.
20:05 John Thomas McNamara Series Flat Race
We named the winner2m0f0y · Good · 11 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Hill Silver (15/8)
Won by: Hill Silver (IRE) at 6/5F · then Bellahill (GB), In Around Thehouse (IRE)
What we said: Hill Silver heads the market off two solid placed efforts and a fair few sires-and-trainer positives, but both his runs came on yielding/good-soft and he's never raced on this quicker good surface, while Baymount's best form and highest pace figure came at a similar trip and could easily reverse placings; with Bellahill and Ddakji also holding legitimate claims on lightly-raced profiles, there's no horse here I can separate from the pack with real conviction at the price on offer.
