17:07 Sligo Plumb Centre Mares Maiden Hurdle
Placed2m1f111y · Good · 9 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Cotswold Blue (4/7)
Won by: Belladaball (IRE) at 100/30 · then Cotswold Blue (FR), Searcog (IRE)
What we said: Unbeaten this campaign with a 221 form line, she won readily last time out and the step up to today's trip plays to a stayer who's yet to be extended. She's proven on this exact going across three runs and looks the class act in a maiden field short on depth.
17:42 Aidan Moffitt Memorial Handicap Hurdle
Placed2m1f111y · Good · 13 ran
Our bet: Fremantle Doctor (5/2)
Won by: Calm Flight Ahead (IRE) at 25/1 · then Fremantle Doctor (IRE), Bowgate Street (IRE)
What we said: Sits well clear on form with that solid runner-up effort just 9 days ago at a similar trip on the same ground, and he's the model of consistency having completed 12 of his last 13 hurdles starts. He carries the top weight but is rated to do so as the field's best horse on official figures, and the step up in trip looks a natural progression rather than a stretch.
18:17 Solar Generation Maiden Hurdle
Did not win2m4f107y · Good · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Kisuton Enki (7/4)
Won by: Seven Towers (IRE) at 15/8 · then Hadahi (IRE), Lengaruka (FR)
What we said: Kisuton Enki heads the market off an 84-day break carrying the explicit fresh-off-a-long-layoff caution and a modest record after such gaps, while Seven Towers' effort trend (3-3-9) is going the wrong way even with course and trip experience in the book; neither market leader gives me a clean case at these prices, and the rest of the field is either lightly proven or firmly outclassed on official form.
18:48 McDermott Farm Machinery Handicap Hurdle
Did not win2m4f107y · Good · 18 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Phoenix Arizona (7/2)
Won by: Move It On Over (IRE) at 22/1 · then Mother Ship (IRE), Sekakarma (IRE), Hob's Angel (IRE)
What we said: Eighteen runners in a competitive handicap hurdle with at least four legitimate form cases (Phoenix Arizona's improving figures and perfect jumping record, Sekakarma's front-running speed and solid recent form, Laska Du Breuil's course win last time out, Georginas Jet's consistent placing) makes this exactly the sprawling, closely-matched field built to frustrate rather than reward a single confident selection. Add the layoff caution on Laska Du Breuil and the first-time headgear question marks scattered through the field, and there's no runner here I'd stake my own money on at the price.
19:18 Francie 'Banger' Burns Handicap Hurdle
Placed2m4f148y · Good · 11 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: In The Minus (13/2)
Won by: Midnight Eagle (IRE) at 4/1 · then Harpy Eagle (IRE), In The Minus (IRE)
What we said: Won last time out over today's exact course, trip and going, and the sire line flag for this ground adds weight to a lightly-raced four-year-old still on the way up; a spotless 9-from-9 jumping record and the market support into 7.5 backs a genuine improving profile rather than a hunch. This is a horse peaking at the right moment with conditions stacking in its favour.
19:48 Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle
We named the winner3m1f118y · Good · 12 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Strong Contender (9/2)
Won by: Strong Contender (IRE) at 4/1F · then Luck Between Us (IRE), Cornmarket (IRE)
What we said: Twelve runners in a competitive handicap hurdle with no standout: Strong Contender heads the market off a recent win and a trip that should suit, but a lowest-in-field rating and a card padded with plausible types (Keep Em Quite fresh off a solid second, Ilbdare returning from 71 days with a proven course-and-going record, Luck Between Us fresh off a win at the track) leaves too many live threats to lean on the favourite at the price. Dorans Law's rating is the highest here but his figures are wildly mixed and the yard is cold, so nothing separates cleanly enough to bet with conviction.
20:18 WTW Willis Insurance Brokers Flat Race
Placed2m2f89y · Good · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Run For Fun (5/6)
Won by: Conor'salwaysright (IRE) at 15/2 · then Run For Fun (FR), Orderly Conduct (IRE)
What we said: Run For Fun looks the one they fancy at Closutton and the price already says as much, but he's an unraced type with no form line to hang a case on beyond the market's own confidence, and Dancing Symbol (solid second last time, PR109) and Orderly Conduct both have live claims too, which is exactly the crowded picture that keeps me out.