Smart Stakes: tested, and shelved

We built a stake-sizing feature — quarter-Kelly, capped at 5% of bank — and said it would launch only if a public forward test proved it beat flat stakes. We also said that if it didn't, we'd say so.

Kelly staking sizes bets from an edge over the market: it spends an edge, it can't create one. When we recalibrated our published probabilities to be strictly honest, the honest numbers showed no edge to size from — so the method itself now says to stake next to nothing. That's it working correctly, and it's exactly why we're not selling it.

The tips are still free, still published before the off, and every result is still tracked, win or lose. See today's picks or the full record.