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Home/Archive/Ascot — 5 September 2026

Ascot — 5 September 2026

What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.

7 races · we bet 7 · we named the winner in 3

13:40 Schweppes Handicap Stakes

We named the winner

Class 2 · 0m7f0y · Good · 10 ran

Our bet: Thunder Call (11/10)

Won by: Thunder Call (GB) at 1/1F · then The Fingal Raven (IRE), Two Tribes (GB)

What we said: Consistent improving form figures (2-1132) show a horse in the form of its life, stepped up in trip and now switched to a leading yard combo with William Haggas firing at 11-52 in the last fortnight. At 8-12 he's the lightest weight in the field carrying a rating well clear of his winning marks, and the strong T+J combo (23%) backs up a clean profile of placed efforts building to a win.

14:10 Money Back 2nd Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race)

Did not win

Class 2 · 1m3f211y · Good · 9 ran

Our bet: Ancestor (6/1)

Won by: Turty Tree (IRE) at 20/1 · then Decade Of Time (GB), Archers Bay (IRE)

What we said: Two wins on the bounce (411) with the form figures still rising, dropped into this from a yard, Haggas, in red-hot touch and Cieren Fallon booked; the step up in trip and class looks exactly what a fast-improving sort needs right now. Fair price reflects a genuine each-way threat but the upward trajectory of the form is the strongest angle in the race for me.

14:45 tote £75k Guaranteed Placepot Today EBF "Confined" Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses Which Have Run No More Than Once) (GBB Race)

We named the winner

Class 2 · 0m6f0y · Good · 4 ran

Our bet: Pensando A Te (6/4)

Won by: Pensando A Te (GB) at 6/5F

What we said: Runner-up on debut and clearly fancied again, backed in from 2/1 to 6/4 overnight, with a solid trainer/jockey combo (24% from 70) at today's track; the quick 31-day turnaround keeps her fresh rather than rusty. At a big field of just four this looks the swiftest way to back the form horse who's already shown he handles this level.

15:25 Silent Pool Gin "Confined" Handicap Stakes (For Horses Which Have Won No More Than One Race)

We named the winner

Class 3 · 1m1f212y · Good · 7 ran

Our bet: Gavriel (11/8)

Won by: Gavriel (GB) at 5/2 · then Balzac (GER)

What we said: Strong recent form for a well-drawn favourite in this confined company, with a switch back to a mile-and-an-eighth that has suited before and a yard/jockey combination clicking together (Gosden/Havlin). Nothing here amplifies the favourite case beyond what the price already reflects, so I'm backing the best horse rather than finding an edge against the market.

16:00 British Ebf Premier Fillies' Handicap Stakes

Placed

Class 2 · 1m0f0y · Good · 10 ran

Our bet: Luna Celeste (5/1)

Won by: Applesandpears (GB) at 25/1 · then True Test (GB), Luna Celeste (IRE)

What we said: Her last five starts read -21211, meaning two outright wins book-ended by places, with the most recent run a victory — that's the strongest form trajectory in this field. She races off a modest 9-2 with an OR88 well below several rivals rated in the 90s-100s, suggesting there's more improvement to find, and the 5/1 on offer looks fair for a filly still climbing. The Boughey-style profile of a lightly-exposed improver stepping up again is exactly the type that outruns a bare rating.

16:35 Club26 Handicap Stakes

Did not win

Class 2 · 0m6f0y · Good · 15 ran

Our bet: Golden Long (4/1)

Won by: Havana Blue (GB) at 11/2 · then Fifty Nifty (IRE), Northcliff (IRE)

What we said: back-to-back wins in his last two starts (531711) show a horse improving fast and clearly finding his form at just the right time, and the drop into this grade off a modest weight (9-3) lets that form carry through. The recent scoring sequence is the strongest form angle in the race, and I'm happy to take a stand on it at today's price.

17:10 For Racing & Sports Betting Handicap Stakes

Did not win

Class 2 · 0m5f0y · Good · 13 ran

Our bet: Fluorescence (7/2)

Won by: Maelstrom (GB) at 14/1 · then Dyonisos (FR), Gold Star Hero (IRE)

What we said: Won last time out and has been running consistently at a high level, carrying the best form profile in this field with the top PR/SR figures among realistic contenders. The step back in trip range and manageable weight of 9-10 lets her build on that recent win, and the trainer/jockey combination here has been in useful form together.

Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record