What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 4
Class 4 · 0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 2 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Great Oak (4/11)
Won by: Great Oak (IRE) at 1/3F
What we said: well-bred Mehmas colt for a strong yard, fast ground suits, and market price (short favourite in a 3-runner novice) reflects clear market confidence over these two moderate rivals
Class 6 · 0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Whiskey Kisses (5/2)
Won by: Cotai Starlight (IRE) at 28/1 · then Summerstorms Dream (IRE)
What we said: 7-runner handicap with three overlapping form lines (Whiskey Kisses, Water Of Leith, Mount Ruapehu) all priced near their fair%, no genuine mispricing to exploit
Class 6 · 0m7f50y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Imperial Guard (10/11)
Won by: Imperial Guard (IRE) at 8/15F · then Supreme Dancer (IRE)
What we said: 6-runner Class 6 handicap where Imperial Guard is favoured but carries top weight (145 vs 134 avg) and his price is already short of fair, no genuine value gap
Class 3 · 0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Jordan Electrics (9/4)
Won by: Jordan Electrics (GB) at 11/4F · then Lord Roxby (IRE), Veblen Good (IRE)
What we said: 9-runner competitive handicap where fair% has Jordan Electrics (25%), Veblen Good (19%) and Lord Roxby (14%) all with legitimate claims, no clear price mismatch to my read
Class 5 · 1m0f0y · Good To Firm · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Hale End (5/2)
Won by: Hale End (IRE) · then Starliner (IRE), Runninsonofagun (IRE)
What we said: 9-runner handicap with 4+ legit contenders (Hale End, Benacre, Donna Nook, Runninsonofagun) and no runner's price clearly beats fair% by enough to justify a stake
Class 6 · 1m2f0y · Good To Firm · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Glasses Up (10/3)
Won by: Phantom Shadow (FR) at 9/2 · then Falcon Nine (GB), Sophiesticate (IRE)
What we said: four horses share top rating of 65 with genuinely competitive recent form (Motawaared, Taylormade Lad, Falcon Nine, Toy Soldier), classic red-hot Class 6 handicap with no standout price/form disconnect
Class 6 · 0m5f0y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Under The Radar (9/4)
Won by: Sea Her Excel (GB) at 7/2 · then Golden Havana (IRE)
What we said: 6-runner sprint handicap with 4 legitimate claims (Brash, Golden Havana, Sea Her Excel, Under The Radar) and no runner's price clearly out of line with its fair%, just a crowded market-led affair
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