What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
8 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 2
2m1f89y · Good · 15 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Bells Grove (4/6)
Won by: Bells Grove (IRE) at 4/7F · then How's Ellie (IRE), Whoyougonnacall (IRE)
What we said: 15-runner maiden hurdle with a clear market leader (Bells Grove, 47% fair) but too many unexposed/lightly-raced types to call an edge either way
2m1f89y · Good · 13 ran
We passed. Likely winner: World As One (15/8)
Won by: No Mon No Fun (IRE) at 18/1 · then Sharu (IRE), World As One (GER)
What we said: 13-runner maiden hurdle with two market leaders (Whats New, World As One) both steaming and fairly priced near their fair%, no clear value gap to exploit
2m1f89y · Good · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Houndsworth (7/2)
Won by: Max Meridius (IRE) at 7/2F · then Bhean Saibhre (IRE), Le Diablo (FR)
What we said: 9-runner competitive handicap with 4+ credible contenders (Bhean Saibhre, Houndsworth, Le Diablo, Valsorpresa) and no runner clearly overpriced vs fair%; top pick Bhean Saibhre carries a bookie-above-exchange flag (losing signal) plus a stiff top-weight concern
2m1f89y · Good · 5 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Lureka Du Noyer (4/5)
Won by: Manoir De Mirande (FR) at 4/1 · then Lureka Du Noyer (FR)
What we said: Fav Lureka Du Noyer (won last, course fair 10/11=52%) is priced fairly, no gap between my read and market; rest of field lacks a clean case
2m1f89y · Good · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Wolf Prince (5/2)
Won by: Eye Of A Tiger (IRE) at 4/1 · then Eye Contact (GB), Fiveonefive (IRE)
What we said: Wolf Prince is clearly best on form/figures but already trades short of fair value (5/2 vs 16/5 fair), and he's conceding lumps of weight in a competitive handicap
2m6f41y · Good · 15 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Run For The Border (9/4)
Won by: Not So Serious (IRE) at 50/1 · then Run For The Border (IRE), Ranger Billy (IRE)
What we said: 16-runner handicap hurdle with no reliable jumper: too many chronic pull-up/unplaced profiles, no standout price vs form case
2m6f41y · Good · 16 ran
We passed. Likely winner: She'll Be Kept (12/1)
Won by: She'll Be Kept (IRE) at 12/1 · then Smackwater Jack (IRE), La Tene (IRE), Joshua Chamberlain (IRE)
What we said: 16-runner handicap hurdle, no dominant form horse and 4+ runners (She'll Be Kept, Fool Me Once, Rushford, Joshua Chamberlain) share plausible claims within a few pounds
1m7f119y · Good · 13 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Tommy's Ticket (4/1)
Won by: Ealu Tapa (IRE) at 7/2 · then Millers Point (IRE), Tommy's Ticket (IRE)
What we said: 13-runner bumper full of debutants/lightly-raced maidens, no proven form to hang an edge on, market itself unsure (multiple steamers/drifters at big prices)
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
