Bangor-on-Dee — 4 September 2026

Class 4 · 2m3f123y · Good · 5 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Hoe Joly Smoke (4/6)

Won by: Hoe Joly Smoke (GB) at 13/8 · then Iamyouare (IRE)

What we said: Hoe Joly Smoke and Iamyouare dominate the market and both look fairly assessed rather than underpriced: Hoe Joly Smoke's drop from 26f to 19.6f plays to his dist record but the market has already banked that, and his return from a 114-day absence carries the modest caution that layoffs of that length bring; Iamyouare is workmanlike but has a fall in her last five starts and nothing in her recent running marks her a standout at 6/4. With the rest of the field rated single-figure percentage chances and the drying-to-softening ground adding a genuine unknown, there's no runner here I'd put my own money on at the price.

Class 5 · 2m4f72y · Good · 8 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Delgany Second Now (2/5)

Won by: Delgany Second Now (GB) at 4/9F · then Soldier In Mayo (IRE)

What we said: Won last time out by daylight and comes into this fresh off just a 7-day turnaround, building on a form line that reads 5-1-1 with the extra half-furlong in trip posing no obvious problem given a perfect 5-from-5 jumping record. The Skelton operation is firing and this looks the one horse in the field genuinely progressing rather than treading water.

Class 2 · 3m0f30y · Good · 6 ran

Our bet: Thickthorn Tom (13/8)

Won by: Tamarind Bay (IRE) at 5/4F · then Thickthorn Tom (IRE)

What we said: Six-race form line reads 212111, a horse plainly on the up and fresh off a course-and-distance-adjacent win just eight days ago, and the step up in trip fits a stamina profile that keeps improving with every run. Jumping has been fault-free (11 of 12 completed) and this small, winnable field suits a horse still finding his level.

Class 3 · 2m7f32y · Good · 5 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Kiwi de Cotte (9/4)

Won by: Ernest Gray (IRE) at 9/4F · then Roger Pol (IRE)

What we said: Three horses stack up almost identically here: Ernest Gray brings solid course and distance form with a clean jumping record, Secret Trix arrives fit off a good second and jumps almost faultlessly (33 of 35), and Kiwi de Cotte has the freshest form line with a facile win last time at this trip and ground — nothing in the book pulls one clear of the other two at a price worth backing. Rain is forecast and the ground may ease, adding another layer of uncertainty none of the three have proven form through.

Class 5 · 2m0f145y · Good · 6 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Jammy Jay (12/5)

Won by: Prettylady (FR) at 16/1

What we said: the write-up made a claim the racecard does not support, so this pick was withheld

Class 4 · 3m0f30y · Good · 8 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Harrys Hope (4/1)

Won by: Limerick Leader (FR) at 17/2 · then Depalma (IRE)

What we said: the write-up made a claim the racecard does not support, so this pick was withheld

Class 5 · 2m3f123y · Good · 12 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Ashdown Forest (3/1)

Won by: Ballynoe Boy (IRE) · then Cawthorne Cracker (IRE), Ashdown Forest (IRE)

What we said: Three runners share the same fair chance at the same 3/1 quote: Ballynoe Boy comes into this on the back of a course-and-distance win but his jockey has drawn a blank at Bangor in 25 rides, Ashdown Forest is only third-best off his last start for a red-hot Skelton yard, and Lucky In Taipan has been backed in from the overnight book without ever franking his placed form with a win — none of the three gives me a reason to split it decisively at the price on offer.