What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
6 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 1
Class 5 · 0m5f160y · 6 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Merrimack (13/2)
Won by: Grey Horizon (GB) at 7/2 · then Merrimack (GB)
What we said: Favored high draw plus first-time tongue-tie/visor angle and strong course-trainer stats (16%, a/e 1.08) converge with a bookie overlay, suggesting this is the trigger after a run of frustrating places
Class 5 · 0m5f10y · Firm · 7 ran
Won by: Sheer Beauty (IRE) at 3/1 · then Tricky Jenny (GB)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 6 · 5f10y · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Coast (14/1)
Won by: Darkened Edge (GB) at 5/4F · then Little Miss Magic (IRE)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 6 · 1m6f0y · 5 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Campeona (1/2)
Won by: Campeona (GB) at 1/4F · then Endofastorm (IRE)
What we said: Campeona is clearly best but 1/2 is shorter than her 61% fair price, no value; rest of field lacks a genuine edge
Class 6 · 1m3f137y · Firm · 8 ran
Won by: Yokkell (IRE) at 11/8F · then Jimmy Mark (IRE), Sea Of Charm (FR)
What we said: 8-runner handicap with no clean price edge; Yokkell tops the figures but her price already reflects that, and the favoured-draw runners (Bug Boy, Man Is King, Hope Rising) all carry their own red flags (layoff/drift, modest recent form)
Class 6 · 1m0f0y · Firm · 7 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: My Ambition
Won by: Havana Club (GB) · then Blue Hero (CAN)
What we said: Favored high draw (6) plus a firm 21% market steamer and bookie overlay signal strong confidence into a race with tight form.
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