15:51 Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Claiming Hurdle
Did not win2m4f110y · Good To Yielding · 14 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Oh So Charming (4/1)
Won by: Rocky's Howya (IRE) at 5/1 · then Rich Belief (GB), Allo Al Khawaneej (GB)
What we said: Too many hands up in this 14-runner claimer: Oh So Charming won last time and looks the one to beat, but Rocky's Howya, Rich Belief, Long Gone and Tassarolo all carry genuine claims at workable prices, and nothing separates them enough to lean on one with confidence.
16:25 Bet With Tote On Racing & Sports Maiden Hurdle
We named the winner2m4f110y · Good To Yielding · 15 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Thesilverbridle (11/10)
Won by: Thesilverbridle (IRE) at 7/4 · then Lygon Lad (IRE), Whats New (IRE)
What we said: Thesilverbridle heads a maiden field on smart placed form and a already-tried distance (2nd there once), but she's yet to race on this good-to-yielding/good-to-soft ground and at odds-on there's no case here worth the stake against a field of 15 where three others (Whats New, Chantilly Wings, Lygon Lad) all carry live form too.
17:00 Money Back Daily Specials With Tote.ie Handicap Hurdle
Placed2m4f110y · Good To Yielding · 19 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Goin' (7/2)
Won by: Ardgillan (IRE) at 18/1 · then Steps In The Sand (IRE), Goin' (GB), Cornaroya Rocco (IRE)
What we said: Nineteen runners in a wide-open handicap hurdle is exactly the field size that beats you, and no horse separates itself enough to bet: Goin' heads the market off a modest 900-55 finishing figure and faces a monster step up from 14f to nearly 20.5f fresh from a first-time hood, while Steps In The Sand and Hatfield Hammer both carry live recent form (88-434, P9-634) without doing enough to be picked over the market leader. With that many runners and that much competitive form scattered through mid-field, this is a watch-and-learn rather than a bet.
17:35 Bective Stud, Hotel & Tea Rooms Mullacurry Cup Handicap Hurdle
Did not win2m4f110y · Good To Yielding · 13 ran
Our bet: Red Glory (5/1)
Won by: Elusive Ogie (IRE) at 8/1 · then Avalo (IRE), Serienmond (GER)
What we said: Top-rated in the field on form figures 21-534 with a flawless 17-from-17 jumping record, and stepping up to today's trip off a solid 4th at 17f suggests the extra ground will suit rather than stretch him. He's proven around this course and the extra weight simply reflects that he's the best horse in the race on official figures.
18:05 PANDA Mares Hurdle
Did not win2m1f40y · Good To Yielding · 7 ran
Our bet: Fastnet Crystal (11/8)
Won by: Daboya (IRE) at 9/1 · then Speisialta (IRE)
What we said: Highest form figure in the field on PR123, with placed efforts of 2-1-2 in her last three starts and a solid second on today's course, trip and going already on her card. J J Slevin takes over for a yard sending out winners at 18% in the last fortnight, and the step back to this trip suits a filly who's already proven at it.
18:38 John Purfield Memorial Handicap Hurdle (Div I)
Did not win2m1f40y · Good To Yielding · 18 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Chesterbaylad (11/2)
Won by: Crypto Crash (GB) at 20/1 · then Lunar Landscape (GB), Surviving Murmansk (IRE)
What we said: Eighteen runners and a cluster of live-form types at bunched prices — Chesterbaylad won last time at this same trip, Convincing won last time too albeit stepping up in trip, and Lunar Landscape ran on for 4th — none of them separates cleanly enough at 11/2-6/1 to call it, and a field this size is exactly where handicaps do their equalising.
19:08 John Purfield Memorial Handicap Hurdle (Div II)
2m1f40y · Good To Yielding · 17 ran
Our bet: Syosset (5/2)
What we said: Improving form figures 0-3223 show a horse finding its stride, placing second twice and third in its last three starts before a solid 3rd of 13 last time out, and it has a spotless jumping record (completed all 9 starts). The step up in trip and easing ground look to suit a gelding still on an upward curve, and the 5lb claim adds a workable weight break in this deep field.
19:38 WTW Willis (Ladies Pro/Am) Flat Race
2m1f40y · Good To Yielding · 14 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Blue Trix (11/10)
What we said: Blue Trix looks value-packed on raw thinking with Mullins/Townend at 11/10, but that price already prices in the yard's strength (21% course strike, 26% combo), and there's no conditions or shape angle today that amplifies it beyond what the market has already built in; with 14 going to post and several unexposed types behind her, backing the obvious favourite here adds nothing extra for the money.
