14:30 Teenage Cancer Trust Handicap Stakes
Class 6 · 5f60y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Diomed Spirit (5/2)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 1 · results held for 6
Class 6 · 5f60y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Diomed Spirit (5/2)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 5 · 5f215y · Good To Firm · 5 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Enamored (10/11)
Won by: Enamored (GB) at 8/11F · then Red Tail (IRE)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 6 · 1m1f207y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Myna (6/4)
Won by: Celebrating Ethel (IRE) · then Fitzmaurice (IRE)
What we said: Clear class edge in this Class 6 field with the best official rating (48) and profile rating (53), and the form line 614423 shows a recent win plus consistent frame finishes at today's trip and on this going. Extensive course-and-distance experience (22 runs at this trip) with solid placings gives it the proven substance the rest of this weak field lacks.
Class 4 · 5f215y · Good To Firm · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: The Quiet Gent (5/2)
Won by: Marcellinus (GB) at 7/2F · then The Quiet Gent (IRE), Tenbob Tommy (GB)
What we said: This sprint boils down to a genuine toss-up between the steamed-in Quiet Gent, who is fancied enough to have shortened from 5/2 to 3.5 but carries a 295-day absence and unproven fitness, and a cluster of others (Marcellinus with the highest rating in the field, Lequinto with a mountain of course form, Cayman Tai with the best trainer/course numbers but an unfavoured draw) none of whom stands clearly apart on official figures or today's conditions. With five or more runners boasting a live case and the market itself unsure — note the sharp drifts on Marcellinus, Bona Fortuna and Grey Horizon alongside the steam on Quiet Gent and Cayman Tai — there's no runner here I'd back with conviction at the price on offer.
Class 6 · 5f215y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Bated Breeze (3/1)
Won by: Big Time Rascal (GB) at 9/1 · then Manhattan Chute (IRE)
What we said: Won last time out and his course-and-distance figures (3061) show he's fully at home around this tight Brighton five, backed up by a going record that already contains a win over this exact surface. David Probert's yard is in useful touch here (19% at the track, well ahead of expectation), and the market move into 3/1 simply confirms what the form already says. This is the one runner in a messy little sprint whose recent win and conditions profile genuinely stack up together.
Class 6 · 6f210y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Shes Got The Blues (7/4)
Won by: Superstorm (GB) at 5/1 · then Pennine Way (GB)
What we said: She's flourishing right now, with a 1-1-3 sequence over her last three starts including a win at this course and further course-and-distance form figures of 3-1-1, so she arrives fitter and sharper than this rain-softened field. The step up in class from recent easy wins hasn't stopped her progressing, and the booking of a 5lb claimer to lighten the load only sweetens a filly clearly on the up.
1m · 5 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Victoria
Won by: Anafah (A) at 6/4 · then Fareedhat El Izz (A)
What we said: Mrs W Hassall fields two runners in solid recent form, Victoria fresh off a win and Fareedhat El Izz also scoring last time out with a first-time hood added, and stable intent between two of her own is impossible to separate from outside; Anafah returns from 153 days off with unknown snap, and Ghayah's first-time blinkers add another live variable in a small but genuinely competitive field. With no clean standout and two horses effectively pulling for the same yard, this is one to watch rather than back.
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