What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
6 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 0 · results held for 0
Class 4 · 7f173y · Good To Firm
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Bella Angelina (6/4)
What we said: clear market steamer, sire suits fast ground, only third career start but improving form and shortening odds show insider confidence
Class 3 · 6f195y · Good To Firm
We passed. Likely winner: Rogue Passion (10/3)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 6 · 1m3f39y · Good To Firm
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Fleur De Mer (11/2)
What we said: proven course/distance/going form with a genuine bookie overlay (+2.1 vs exchange) and sire suits fast ground
Class 6 · 5f182y · Good To Firm
We passed. Likely winner: Catalyse (11/2)
What we said: Class 6 sprint handicap with 4+ horses (Catalyse, Mr Cool, Great, Bay Breeze) rated within a point of each other and no genuine price overlay on the steamer
Class 4 · 5f182y · Good To Firm
We passed. Likely winner: Cotai Belle (5/2)
What we said: Class 4 sprint handicap with several plausible contenders and no runner priced clearly above fair value
Class 5 · 6f195y · Good To Firm
We passed. Likely winner: Black Storm (5/2)
What we said: Black Storm's rating edge is real but its price (5/2) is already shorter than its own fair odds (27/8), so the steam offers no value; rest of the 12-runner field is too tightly bunched to isolate an edge
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
