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Home/Archive/Carlisle — 11 August 2026

Carlisle — 11 August 2026

What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.

6 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 2

14:45 Cummersdale Apprentice Handicap Stakes

Did not win

Class 6 · 0m7f173y · Good · 8 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Tees George (11/4)

Won by: Hostility (IRE) at 2/1F · then Izzari (GER), Perfidia (IRE)

What we said: Two-from-two in the frame across his last four starts (4-3-4-2) shows a horse holding form at exactly the right time, and his damsire's line is flagged to relish this quick going with the trip unchanged from a good second last time out. He's fresh (13 days), drawn where it doesn't matter today, and the price matches a horse whose recent placing has been genuinely consistent rather than a one-off.

15:15 National Racehorse Week 2026 EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

We named the winner

Class 3 · 0m6f195y · Good · 5 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Rogue Passion (8/11)

Won by: Rogue Passion (IRE) at 30/100F · then Lizzie Bennet (GB)

What we said: Second last time out over this same course and distance just 33 days ago, giving her solid recent form to fall back on, and her sire line (via Frankel) is flagged as thriving on today's decent ground. She's clearly the class of this small five-runner field, with the rest of the runners either untried, drifting in the market, or returning from long absences.

15:45 Colin Parker Raceday 1st Nov Nursery Handicap Stakes

We named the winner

Class 5 · 0m5f0y · Good · 7 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Influencer Man (11/4)

Won by: Influencer Man (IRE) at 2/1F · then Concert Pitch (IRE)

What we said: Top-rated in the field on official figures and the form line reads the right way, 4th then 2nd last time, with today repeating the same trip and same good ground that suited him. The yard is sending out winners at a healthy clip right now and this looks the type to build on that improving shape rather than one flattered by a single good run.

16:15 Christmas Community Raceday 13th Dec Handicap Stakes

Did not win

Class 5 · 0m5f182y · Good · 9 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Great (10/3)

Won by: Sixtygeesbaby (IRE) at 4/1 · then Valentine Catcher (GB), Pickersgill (IRE)

What we said: this Class 5 sprint is packed too tight to split with conviction: Great arrives on the back of a course win and a progressive 871531 sequence, Another Investment has been runner-up in three straight starts including twice over course and distance, and Jenever adds first-time blinkers to a mountain of experience, with none of them standing clearly above the others at the price on offer. Throw in a steamer in Pickersgill and a drifter in Stirrup Cup pulling the market in opposite directions, and there's no single thread here worth staking on.

16:45 Ladies Night 2027 On Sale Now Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)

Did not win

Class 4 · 1m6f32y · Good · 8 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Shipshape (11/4)

Won by: Asia Force (IRE) at 6/4F · then Dance Time (GB)

What we said: Form figures of 212112 are about as strong as you'll see running into a handicap, and the 212 record at this specific trip shows it handles the test today asks better than most in this field. Second last time out over 16f on good ground just 45 days ago, dropping back slightly in trip today, and cheekpieces already fitted rather than a first-time gamble.

17:15 Handicap Stakes

Did not win

Class 6 · 0m6f195y · Good · 9 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Leelawadee (2/1)

Won by: Truly Special (GB) at 25/1 · then Viviana (GB)

What we said: Leelawadee sits favourite on solid recent placed form, but her only two runs at this exact trip read 7th and 4th, and behind her Only Dream Big, Viviana and Sparkling Pink all carry live claims in a workaday Class 6 field with no standout profile; too many fillies with a case to lean on one with conviction.

Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record