What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 1 · we named the winner in 2
Class 4 · 2m6f31y · Good · 6 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Newbrook Diamond (10/11)
Won by: Newbrook Diamond (IRE) at 11/10F · then Rebel Tribesman (IRE)
What we said: Gordon Elliott's improving winner last time out (5273-1 form), evens favourite in a small weak field with no market drift against it
Class 5 · 2m1f46y · Good · 8 ran
Our bet: Alvesta (15/8)
Won by: Alvesta (GB) at 6/4F · then Mr Lincoln (GB), Mr Globalist (IRE)
What we said: strong market steamer (23% shorter) with solid recent form (46-713) and fair% (30%) now the clear market leader, backed at course-relevant conditions
Class 3 · 2m1f46y · Good · 11 ran
We passed. Likely winner: My Chiquita (11/2)
Won by: Secret Force (IRE) at 17/2 · then Winds Of Winter (IRE), Eternal Angel (FR)
What we said: 11-runner handicap hurdle with 6 legitimate contenders (My Chiquita, Saligo Bay, Percy Shelley, Norman Fletcher, Eternal Angel, Ladies Day) tightly bunched on figures, no price stands out as true value
Class 3 · 2m6f31y · Good · 13 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Oakley (11/1)
Won by: Caughtinyourtrance (IRE) at 9/2 · then Roaring Home (GB), Belles Benefit (IRE)
What we said: 13-runner handicap with 5+ horses (Tommie Beau, Peaky Boy, Homme Public, Caughtinyourtrance, High Dancer) all holding legitimate claims on official figures, no single overlay big enough to cut through the uncertainty
Class 5 · 3m1f107y · Good · 10 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Lights Are Green (9/1)
Won by: Jeteye (IRE) at 13/2 · then Judicial Review (IRE), Kingofthegame (IRE)
What we said: Clear market steamer (17% shorter) plus a bookie-overlay vs exchange signal, backed by course/trip form and a rating well above his current mark
Class 5 · 2m1f61y · Good · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Clean Getaway (9/1)
Won by: Forsa Bay (IRE) at 11/1 · then Getaway Jewel (IRE), Clean Getaway (IRE)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 4 · 2m5f34y · Good · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Passengerontheship (4/5)
Won by: Sean Og (IRE) at 9/4 · then Moodofthemoment (IRE)
What we said: Class 4 handicap chase (historically negative ROI for me), no runner offers value vs fair odds — Passengerontheship's form is best but priced shorter than its own fair%
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
