Cartmel — 20 July 2026

Class 4 · 2m1f46y · Good · 8 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Gambino (8/11)

Won by: Gambino (IRE) at 4/6F · then Speed For Fun (FR), Masekela (IRE)

What we said: Two market leaders (Gambino, Speed For Fun) split the class but both return from long layoffs/a fall with no clear edge over their fair prices

Class 5 · 2m6f31y · Good · 9 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Masterminding (3/1)

Won by: Fairlawn Skipper (GB) at 8/1 · then Masterminding (IRE), Lelantos (IRE)

What we said: competitive 9-runner handicap hurdle with at least 5 credible claims (Les's Destiny Star, Fourofakind, Fairlawn Skipper, Lelantos, Matoury) and no runner's price clearly exceeds its fair value

Class 5 · 2m1f46y · Good · 8 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Raffles Nobu (6/4)

Won by: Zamond (FR) at 9/2 · then Scots Poet (GB), Raffles Nobu (FR)

What we said: 8-runner Class 5 hurdle with 5 horses (90-98 PR) tightly clustered and no runner priced clearly wrong vs its fair%

Class 4 · 3m1f107y · Good · 3 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Stratagem (evn)

Won by: Stratagem (FR) at 4/5F

What we said: 3-runner field but every runner has a red flag: Stratagem is top weight with a cold trainer (6%) and unproven first-time tp, Le Malin is off 571 days with a bookie-drift flag, Slaney Opera fell last time — no clean read

Class 3 · 2m1f61y · Good · 4 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Kientzheim (9/4)

Won by: Passing Diamond (IRE) at 6/4F

What we said: 4-runner handicap chase where two runners carry the losing bookie-above-exchange flag and the other two price close to their own fair odds, no genuine mispricing

Class 5 · 2m5f34y · Good · 9 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Jack Sprat (9/2)

Won by: Aill Dubh (IRE) at 4/1 · then Blazing Court (IRE), Jack Sprat (IRE)

What we said: competitive 9-runner handicap chase with 4-5 legitimate claims (Jack Sprat, El Muchacho, Imperial Rule, Judicial Review, Aill Dubh) and no runner clearly overpriced against fair%