14:05 Mountain Goat Tours Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race
We named the winnerClass 5 · 2m1f46y · Good To Soft · 12 ran
Our bet: Alvesta (3/1)
Won by: Alvesta (GB) at 5/2 · then Zamond (FR), Lord Of The Glance (GB)
What we said: Won last time out and boasts a near-perfect course-and-distance profile (1-3-1 at Cartmel, 1-1 over today's trip), backed by a spotless 12-from-12 completion record over hurdles. The 10lb claim from Leah Noreci keeps the weight light, and the yard clearly has her cherry-picked for this exact conditions.
14:40 RF Miller & Co Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)
We named the winnerClass 4 · 2m1f46y · Good To Soft · 10 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Gambino (4/11)
Won by: Gambino (IRE) at 30/100F · then Whermyrosemarygoes (IRE), Faithful Guardian (IRE)
What we said: Won last time out over course at today's trip on the same good ground, jumped clean in both hurdle starts, and is clearly the class act in this weak novice field on an OR119. The recent form line (3-1) and the fact he's proven at this exact course and distance combination give him a clear edge over a field of maidens and lightly-raced types.
15:15 Hadwins Handicap Hurdle Race
Did not winClass 5 · 3m1f83y · Good To Soft · 14 ran
Our bet: Kingofthegame (4/1)
Won by: Seeyainthesuninn (GB) at 15/2 · then Frisky Whiskey (GB), Larkfield Lusive (IRE)
What we said: a genuine course-and-distance specialist here, with four runs at Cartmel reading 3-1-1-3 and three at this trip reading 1-1-3, and today's exact same 25.5f trip on a track he's already conquered twice suits perfectly. His recent form line -F3113 shows a horse in career-best form right now, and the softening ground shouldn't trouble a horse who's already handled this going here before.
15:53 Molson Coors Cartmel Cup Handicap Hurdle Race
Did not winClass 3 · 2m1f46y · Good To Soft · 14 ran
Our bet: Edelak (4/1)
Won by: Morning Mayhem (GB) at 8/1 · then Lightening Company (IRE), Roysse (GB)
What we said: Progressive 4yo with a stand-out recent sequence (2111F1), including a win last time at this trip on a sounder surface, and his early-pace profile lets him race prominently in a 14-runner field where that's a real asset. The step up to a stiffer test and softer ground hasn't been proven yet, but the trajectory and youth make him the one to beat on shape and form.
16:25 BTRC Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
We named the winnerClass 4 · 2m1f61y · Good To Soft · 5 ran
Our bet: Passing Diamond (1/1)
Won by: Passing Diamond (IRE) at 8/15F · then Lermoos Legend (GB)
What we said: Won last time out over this exact course, trip and going just 40 days ago, and the four-run form line 3-1131 shows a horse in the form of its life with a perfect 7-from-7 jumping record. As the FR pace type in a small five-runner field it can dictate from the front, and the drop into this modest class 4 looks winnable again for the yard.
17:05 Cengiz Sadik Memorial Handicap Steeple Chase (For The Cengiz Sadik Memorial Trophy)
Did not winClass 5 · 2m5f34y · Good To Soft · 11 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Aill Dubh (4/1)
Won by: Illogical Logic (FR) at 7/1 · then Roi Du Roume (FR), Path Of Stars (FR)
What we said: This is a genuinely bunched heap with no standout: Aill Dubh won last time at this course and trip but his jumping record shows repeated pulled-up runs, Roi Du Roume has the profile but has never raced on ground softer than good and is stepping back off a 62-day gap, and Judicial Review's extensive course form is too mixed to lean on: with four or five runners carrying live claims at overlapping prices there's no single case worth backing.
