What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
14 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 2
Class 4 · 1m14y · Good To Firm · 3 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Quisana (5/4)
Won by: Lyrics Of Life (GB) at 4/7F
What we said: 3-runner field with both principals priced almost exactly at their fair odds, no market overlay to exploit
Class 4 · 1m14y · 3 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Quisana (11/10)
Won by: Lyrics Of Life (GB) at 4/7F
What we said: 3-runner maiden with two fillies (Lyrics Of Life, Quisana) priced close to their own fair odds, no clear overlay strong enough to back at these short prices, and Class 4 has been a losing pattern for us
Class 5 · 5f16y · Good To Firm · 4 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Dragon God (2/1)
Won by: So Smart (IRE) at 100/30
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 5 · 5f16y · 4 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Punchbowl Flyer (15/8)
Won by: So Smart (IRE) at 100/30
What we said: 5-runner handicap with multiple credible claims (Punchbowl Flyer's form+draw are good but priced near fair with no real edge, while overlay flags sit on the two draw-disadvantaged runners), plus a poor personal record at this course
Class 4 · 5f16y · Good To Firm · 9 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Blondie Larry (6/5)
Won by: Amber Ocean (GB) at 5/1 · then Blondie Larry (IRE), Chianti (GB)
What we said: steaming favourite with low draw advantage, sire/damsire suited to fast ground, and improving form all converge
Class 4 · 5f16y · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Blondie Larry (7/4)
Won by: Amber Ocean (GB) at 5/1 · then Blondie Larry (IRE), Chianti (GB)
What we said: 9-runner 2yo sprint with 4+ credible contenders (Blondie Larry, Amber Ocean, Chianti, Chilli's hood angle) and no price standing out as overlaid; Chepstow/Class 4 also a weak spot in my record
Class 5 · 1m0f14y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Stenmark (evn)
Won by: Kodi Fire (IRE) at 14/1 · then Dappled Light (GB)
What we said: Odds-on favourite (Stenmark) offers no value in a tightly-bunched Class 5 handicap, and my Chepstow record is poor (2/13)
Class 5 · 1m0f14y · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Dappled Light (3/1)
Won by: Kodi Fire (IRE) at 14/1 · then Dappled Light (GB)
What we said: 6-runner competitive handicap with 4 plausible claims (fav Stenmark's fair%, Dappled Light's draw+form, two first-time headgear runners with bookie overlays) and no single price clearly beats its fair% enough to isolate a winner
Class 6 · 0m7f16y · Good To Firm · 12 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Romanovich (12/1)
Won by: Too Much Trevor (GB) at 10/1 · then Scarfo (IRE), Ajrad (GB)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 6 · 0m7f16y · 12 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Autumn Angel (9/2)
Won by: Too Much Trevor (GB) at 10/1 · then Scarfo (IRE), Ajrad (GB)
What we said: 14-runner Class 6 handicap with 5 horses sharing the favored low-draw bias (Green Icon, Romanovich, Autumn Angel, Ravenglass, King Of The Dance) and no single price standing out as overlaid; Chepstow has been a weak track for me (2/13)
Class 5 · 0m6f16y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Zoulu Warrior (15/2)
Won by: Serenity Dream (IRE) · then Be An Angel (GB)
What we said: Favourable low draw, market steamer (10.0→8.5) with a bookie overlay flagging value, plus strong trainer/jockey course stats (T17%/J20%, combo 22%) all point the same way
Class 5 · 0m6f16y · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Serenity Dream (2/1)
Won by: Serenity Dream (IRE) · then Be An Angel (GB)
What we said: 8-runner handicap with 3+ legitimate claims (Serenity Dream/Magna/Zoulu Warrior on the good draw, Be An Angel in-form, Some Nightmare steaming despite bad draw) and a poor personal Chepstow record (2/13) — no single angle isolates a winner
Class 6 · 1m2f0y · Good To Firm · 4 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Bumaan (11/10)
Won by: Aravalli (IRE) at 7/2
What we said: 4-runner Class 6 handicap at Chepstow, no runner shows real value vs fair%, drifting favourite (Aravalli) has a genuine ground conflict, steamer (Electric Bass) has the worst draw
Class 6 · 1m2f0y · 4 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Aravalli (5/2)
Won by: Aravalli (IRE) at 7/2
What we said: Bumaan and Aravalli both hold legitimate claims (draw, sire fit, recent form) with neither priced above fair%, so there's no genuine value edge in this 4-runner puzzle
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
