What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 2
Class 6 · 0m6f16y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Absolute Diamond (3/1)
Won by: Dreams Galore (IRE) at 9/2 · then So Tempting (GB)
What we said: Class 6 2yo nursery, top-rated Absolute Diamond carries big weight and market already prices her near fair (22%), no clear edge beyond raw rating
Class 5 · 0m6f16y · Good To Firm · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Temple Court (3/1)
Won by: Dissenter (IRE) at 15/2 · then Forest Berry (GB), Beechwood Glory (IRE)
What we said: four+ runners (Temple Court, Beechwood Glory, Forest Berry, Bossy Angel) have plausible form/market cases in a 2yo maiden, no single price stands out as clear value
Class 6 · 0m7f16y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Prefer The Sister (5/6)
Won by: Auburn Avenue (IRE) at 11/1 · then Prefer The Sister (IRE)
What we said: Prefer The Sister is a clear standout on form/market (47% fair vs next-best 14%) but her price already reflects that edge (5/6 ≈ 55% implied vs 47% fair) — no value gap, and Chepstow has been a weak track for us (2/15)
Class 5 · 1m0f14y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Eutropia (13/8)
Won by: Spirit Of The Bay (IRE) at 6/1 · then Kodi Fire (IRE)
What we said: 6-runner handicap with 3-4 closely matched horses on figures (Eutropia, Kodi Fire, Darvel, Spirit Of The Bay all within a few lbs), no runner's price clearly exceeds my own read of its chance
Class 6 · 1m0f14y · Good To Firm · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Knightmare (6/4)
Won by: Knightmare (IRE) at 9/4F · then Prince Ali (GB), A Rose Adaay (GB)
What we said: Class 6 with 3+ runners (Knightmare, Prince Ali, Fighting Queen) holding legitimate claims and the market already tightly bunched, no runner priced clearly wrong
Class 6 · 0m5f16y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Level Up (2/1)
Won by: Level Up (IRE) at 15/8F · then Sundiata Keita (IRE)
What we said: 7-runner handicap with 4 live contenders (Level Up, Trafalger, Savannah Smiles, So Smart) and no price stands out against fair odds
Class 6 · 1m2f0y · Good To Firm · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Midnight Media (6/4)
Won by: Crimson Road (IRE) at 4/1 · then Midnight Media (GB), Tiger Beetle (GB)
What we said: competitive 9-runner handicap with 4+ credible contenders (Midnight Media, Crimson Road, Brodie's Boy, City Escape) and the standout, Midnight Media, is already a short-priced favourite near her fair odds, not overpriced
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
