14:10 Radnor Hills Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)
Did not winClass 4 · 1m4f63y · Good · 7 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Timber Twelve (7/4)
Won by: Charmaine (GB) at 7/2 · then Level Look (GB)
What we said: Strung together a progressive sequence culminating in a recent win, and carries the best form figure and strike rate of anyone in this small field, marking him out as the classiest performer here. The step up in trip and testing ground look no problem given his pedigree and recent placing pattern, and he looks the one to beat on pure ability.
14:45 British Stallion Studs Ebf "confined" Maiden Stakes (For Horses Which Have Not Run More Than Three Times) (GBB Race)
We named the winnerClass 4 · 0m6f17y · Good · 5 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Pure Grit (4/7)
Won by: Pure Grit (GB) at 4/9F · then Shakwaa (GB)
What we said: Two solid runner-up efforts to open his account, including a fair look at this trip, and he steps into a five-runner field where his rating clearly tops the others on official figures. Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy combine for strong course numbers, and this trainer is in the form of his life over the past fortnight.
15:20 Queensferry Stakes (Listed Race)
PlacedClass 1 · 0m6f17y · Good · 9 ran
Our bet: Calico Blue (2/1)
Won by: Simplify (IRE) at 6/1 · then Calico Blue (GB), Lifeplan (IRE)
What we said: Draws in gate 3 on a circuit where low stalls hold a famous, persistent edge, and comes into this off a red-hot Roger Varian yard (36% last fortnight) with the form to match, having won last time out and never finished out of the frame all season. The steady progression through this campaign plus the ideal draw for Chester's tight turn makes him the swing factor at a track where stall position rarely lies.
15:52 Disney's High School Musical At Lowry Handicap Stakes
We named the winnerClass 2 · 0m7f1y · Good · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Dance In The Storm (7/4)
Won by: Dance In The Storm (GB) at 1/1F · then The Angel King (GB), Palmar Bay (FR)
What we said: Chester's stalls bias is the story here and it cuts against the two horses with the strongest form: Dance In The Storm, the classy filly market leader with Oisin Murphy up, draws 10 on a track where low numbers are everything, and Power Fizz, arguably the second-best form horse with Haggas/Fallon combining well, is stuck out in 8. That leaves the horses in the favoured low draws — Khafiz, The Angel King (drifting badly), Miami Matrix — none of whom carry the form or trainer profile to be backed with confidence just because the gate suits them. With the shape of the race split between well-formed-but-badly-drawn and well-drawn-but-under-formed, there's no honest way to land on one.
16:22 J20 Classified Claiming Stakes
We named the winnerClass 4 · 0m7f127y · Good · 6 ran
Our bet: Blue Prince (11/10)
Won by: Blue Prince (IRE) at 13/8F · then Alpha Capture (IRE)
What we said: Top-rated in this field on official figures and form figures reading -33133 shows a horse in career-best shape, with a win and two thirds in his last five starts against similar class. The dam's Iffraaj line is flagged as thriving on quick ground, and with Oisin Murphy taking the ride in a small, weak field this looks the swiftest route to the winner's enclosure.
16:52 Tom Jones Live At Chester Racecourse Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)
PlacedClass 4 · 1m2f70y · Good · 10 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Cape Fear (11/4)
Won by: Tiger (FR) at 2/1F · then Cape Fear (GB), Farasi Lane (IRE)
What we said: Consistent placed form all season (323213) with a recent win in the mix, and the drop into a red-hot Andrew Balding/Oisin Murphy combo (19% strike, 2588 runs) gives this the strongest connections case in the field. The first-time cheekpieces are just intent from a yard already firing, not the reason to back him, but a neutral draw at four means the constant Chester turn is no obstacle either.
