What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 2
2m1f60y · Good · 14 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Hygge (11/10)
Won by: Hygge (GB) · then Mont Star (FR), Saporetti (IRE)
What we said: 14-runner maiden hurdle with Hygge a short favourite drifting nowhere near value and the rest a mess of layoffs/drifters, no clean angle
2m1f60y · Good · 20 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Easter Bonnet (4/1)
Won by: Cosmos D'ainay (FR) at 6/1 · then Lucky Vick (IRE), It's All Clear (IRE)
What we said: 20-runner maiden hurdle with 6+ short-priced contenders (Cosmos D'ainay, It's All Clear, Hinchinbrooke, Easter Bonnet, Moja Dama, Minella Post) all under 5/1, plus the market favourite drifting significantly off a 327d layoff
2m1f60y · Good · 23 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Jay Pee M (13/2)
Won by: Gino Bella (IRE) · then Let It Settle (IRE), Maxicourt (IRE), El Regalo (IRE)
What we said: 26-runner handicap hurdle, textbook lottery with 4+ credible contenders (Jay Pee M, Cloudio, Gino Bella, Laurie Blue) and no isolating pace/draw angle
2m4f · Good · 16 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Arctic Flame (17/2)
Won by: Arctic Flame (IRE) at 13/2 · then Bossy Bird (IRE), Felicity Smoak (IRE), Tudorista (IRE)
What we said: 18-runner mares handicap with 5+ horses holding legitimate claims (Brosna Queen, Costanuci, Arctic Flame, Early Bird, Somersby Roost) and no price standing out as clear value against fair odds
3m · Good · 11 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Jeroboam Machin (11/8)
Won by: Sound Judgement (IRE) at 4/1 · then Withabitofluk (GB), Jeroboam Machin (FR)
What we said: clear market leader with strong 11/8-4 form, steaming in from 2.9 to 2.4 with top trainer Emmet Mullins, fair% of 33% aligns with a legitimate standout in this maiden field
3m · Good · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Maxxum (7/2)
Won by: Reverend Hubert (IRE) · then Mousey Brown (IRE), Hewick (IRE)
What we said: Too many legitimate claims (Hewick, Maxxum, Reverend Hubert, Roi Mage all rated within a few lengths) and no runner's price clearly beats its fair value; steamers/drifters cancel out rather than isolate an edge
2m190y · Good · 16 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Vadique (10/3)
Won by: Hilly Filly (IRE) at 17/2 · then Honey Buck's (IRE), Tiger In New York (IRE)
What we said: 16-runner bumper stuffed with unraced/lightly-raced fillies, no draw or pace data, several with a single run — pure lottery
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