What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
8 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 0
0m5f0y · Good To Firm · 11 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Bold Commander (15/8)
Won by: La Tache (IRE) at 10/1 · then Star Above Me (IRE), Southern Boulevard (IRE)
What we said: 11-runner maiden, favourite Bold Commander looks best but priced right at fair odds (no overlay), and 3+ others (Abletai, La Tache, Litmus Test) have plausible claims with no standout value
1m1f0y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: White Sand Beach (5/4)
Won by: Star Performer (IRE) at 7/2 · then Sunatia (FR)
What we said: WSB is a clear class-form standout (308822, C&D-type profile, going flag) but at 5/4 it's priced tighter than its own fair% — no genuine value, just the best horse at a short price
0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 9 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Ibelieveicanfly (8/13)
Won by: Shi Yang (IRE) at 50/1 · then Admired Beauty (IRE), Alpine Wedding (IRE)
What we said: Clear class edge as A P O'Brien/Ryan Moore's proven runner (form 42) with big overlay in fair% (50% vs next best 12%), fits fast-ground pedigree.
Class 1 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Dorset (8/1)
Won by: Power Blue (IRE) at 11/10F · then Big Gossey (IRE)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
1m0f0y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Orchidaceae (8/1)
Won by: Kirkland Sioux (IRE) at 5/1 · then Pink Oxalis (IRE)
What we said: Top form figure (PR95) in the field, proven course/trip/going winner, first-time cheekpieces for improvement, and a genuine bookie overlay (+1.4 vs exchange) at 8/1
Class 1 · 1m6f4y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Illinois (5/2)
Won by: Trustyourinstinct (IRE) at 13/2 · then Happy Pharoah (IRE)
What we said: Group 2 with 3 genuine contenders (Al Riffa, Illinois, Trustyourinstinct) and no price flagged as mispriced vs fair%, just a tight market read
0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Lars Soldier (10/3)
Won by: I Ready (IRE) at 5/1 · then Seven Nation Army (GER), Tradewinds (IRE)
What we said: 8-runner nursery with 3-4 legitimate claims (Lars Soldier, Tradewinds, Belle Island, I Ready) and no single price offering clean value over fair%
1m4f0y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Numantia (13/8)
Won by: Tokyo Tower (IRE) at 6/1 · then Pierre Grosse (GB)
What we said: 6-runner maiden but market is muddled (favourite Numantia only 37% fair, three others 14-19%), no standout price/form edge
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
