13:15 Follow Us On Instagram @ GuidenstownStud Irish EBF Maiden
Placed0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 19 ran
We passed. Likely winner: New Bond Street (3/1)
Won by: Push The Boat Out (IRE) at 16/1 · then Marco Polo (IRE), New Bond Street (GB)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
13:45 Grand Hotel Malahide Irish EBF Fillies Juvenile Race
We named the winner0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 18 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Ibelieveicanfly (11/8)
Won by: Ibelieveicanfly (USA) at 13/8F · then Speckles (IRE), Exceptionally (USA)
What we said: She's already shown solid form figures (2-4-4) with a career-best effort last time, well clear on experience of most of this maiden field which includes several unraced fillies, and being by Frankel out of a fast-ground sire line she should relish this quick surface. The first-time hood is a slight unknown but Ryan Moore taking the ride for the in-form O'Brien yard adds confidence she's fully forward for this.
14:15 Guidenstown Stud Irish EBF Maiden
We named the winner0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 13 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Shakespeare (6/5)
Won by: Shakespeare (GB) at 8/15F · then Benown (IRE), Loughrea N Roll (IRE)
What we said: Shakespeare is clearly the one to beat, with placed form at this course, trip and going for the powerful O'Brien-Moore team, but at 6/5 the price already fully reflects that clear form edge and leaves no room for profit if the maiden puzzle throws up any hiccup. Behind him this is a field of unraced types and lightly-tried longshots like Supreme Lord and Fort Dearborn where the market has no real read either, so there's nothing to isolate at a workable price.
14:50 Sheehy Motors Volkswagen Handicap
Did not win0m5f0y · Good To Firm · 14 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Ipanema Queen (4/1)
Won by: Rosie Frith (IRE) at 11/2 · then Genesis (IRE), Cuban Grey (GB)
What we said: Fourteen runners and at least five genuine claims (Ipanema Queen fresh off a win with festival pace, Headmaster with a placed record on this exact going, Erosandpsyche in-form with a big finishing kick, the steaming Gazelle d'Or despite top weight, and Rosie Frith stepping forward) leave nothing cleanly separated at the top of the market. Ipanema Queen looks the one to beat on shape and recent form but the price already reflects that, and in a field this deep with this many overlapping form lines there's no single angle sharp enough to back with conviction.
15:25 FBD Hotels And Resorts Phoenix Sprint Stakes (Group 3)
We named the winnerClass 1 · 6f · Good To Firm · 5 ran
Our bet: Big Mojo (6/4)
Won by: Big Mojo (IRE) at 5/4F · then Bucanero Fuerte (GB)
What we said: top-rated in the field on official figures with a clear class edge over these rivals, was fresh and progressive when winning last time out, and his sire's stock is proven on fast ground exactly like today's baked Curragh surface. In a compact five-runner sprint the rating gap does the talking, and with no doubling-up pace worry from a lone confirmed front-runner, he should get every chance to use that class.
16:00 Keeneland Phoenix Stakes (Group 1)
We named the winnerClass 1 · 6f · Good To Firm · 8 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Sun Goddess (5/4)
Won by: Sun Goddess (IRE) at 5/4F · then Folsom Blues (IRE), Velozee (IRE)
What we said: Twice a winner at this course and trip already, with a clean 2121 form line that shows she handles pressure and finishes it out, and the fast ground plays right into her page (Starspangledbanner is a proven fast-ground influence). Ryan Moore and the O'Brien string know exactly how to place a filly like this fresh off a break, and she looks the one with the fewest questions in a workable eight-runner field.
16:35 Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap
Did not win0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 15 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Go Athletico (7/2)
Won by: Mint Man (GB) at 5/1 · then Hugo's Girl (IRE), Nouvel Espoir (IRE)
What we said: Fifteen-runner sprint handicap with a genuinely messy formline: the market picks out Go Athletico on recent placed form but he's shouldering top weight at 141lb, a real concession in a race this deep, while support drains from All Hail and Yutori and gathers around nothing conclusive; Nazario, Sovereign Cry and Mint Man all have live claims but nothing separates them enough to trust at the prices on offer. Too many roughly-matched types in a big field for me to put my own money down.
17:10 Money Back Daily Specials With Tote.ie Handicap
Did not win1m0f0y · Good To Firm · 12 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Summer Island (7/2)
Won by: Kalir (IRE) at 6/1 · then Final Voyage (IRE), No More Porter (IRE)
What we said: Too many with plausible claims in this 12-runner Curragh handicap: Summer Island's course record (1-2-1) and hot spell make him the one to beat, but Booyea, Dark Viper, Kalir and Marmeladova all arrive with genuine recent-form upgrades of their own, and nothing separates them cleanly at the prices on offer. With this many overlapping form lines in a field this size, there's no single angle sharp enough to build a bet around.