What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 0 · results held for 0
Class 2 · 7f6y · Good To Firm
We passed. Likely winner: Ottoman Chief (13/8)
What we said: 7-runner novice with a strong favourite (Ottoman Chief) already short and no market mispricing elsewhere; Night Star's steam and Amir Lehbab's drift cancel out any clean angle
Class 2 · 1m3f197y · Good To Firm
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Count Bezukhov (7/4)
What we said: clear market steamer, best form (31), Wootton Bassett sire suits firm ground, favourite backed in strongly
Class 5 · 1m6f115y · Good To Firm
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Lordsbridge Grey (4/1)
What we said: steamer money plus a genuine bookie overlay, and Havana Grey progeny relish this fast Good-to-Firm surface
Class 4 · 1m2f43y · Good To Firm
We passed. Likely winner: Room Fourteen (8/11)
What we said: Room Fourteen is drifting shorter than fair value (57.9% implied vs 52% fair) despite strong form, and the rest of the field is a scrambled chasing pack with no priced overlay worth trusting
Class 6 · 7f213y · Good To Firm
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Kiss Me My Love (3/1)
What we said: Strong market steamer (7.0→4.0) plus proven course/going form outweighs the top-weight concern
Class 4 · 7f6y · Good To Firm
We passed. Likely winner: Alpha Capture (7/2)
What we said: Well-matched Class 4 handicap with 4+ horses on similar figures (Alpha Capture, Stanage, Monsieur Bondy, King's School) and no runner priced above its fair value
Class 5 · 5f143y · Good To Firm
We passed. Likely winner: Dicko The Legend (4/1)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
