What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 2
5f · Standard · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Ipanema Queen (11/4)
Won by: Kerdos (IRE) at 17/2 · then Eclairage (IRE), Collective Power (IRE)
What we said: 10-runner sprint handicap with 5+ legitimate claims (Valiant Force, Howd'yadoit, Ipanema Queen, Kerdos, Rosie Frith) and no runner priced meaningfully below its fair%
7f · Standard · 11 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Iff In Doubt (9/4)
Won by: Bullet Bourbon (IRE) at 33/1 · then Sagasti (IRE), Push Harder (IRE)
What we said: Favourite with a bookie overlay (+0.6 vs exchange), solid recent form (4-4125) and sire suits today's going, but 69-day layoff and a stacked field cap the confidence
1m · Standard · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Krasimir (11/10)
Won by: Krasimir (IRE) at 13/8F · then Karrygrant (IRE), Rock Of Claremont (IRE)
What we said: Krasimir is a warranted favourite (form 23-233, sire angle, top T+J combo) but at 11/10 offers no value vs 40% fair, and the field has enough depth (Karrygrant, Outlaw Man, Rock Of Claremont) to keep this unbettable at this price
1m · Standard · 14 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Bella Colombia (5/1)
Won by: Movin And Groovin (IRE) at 25/1 · then Famous Enough (IRE), Bella Colombia (IRE)
What we said: 17-runner low-grade handicap, no reliable pace/draw angle, tight spread of similar-form horses
1m4f · Standard · 11 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Sutton Hoo (11/1)
Won by: Baila Conmigo (IRE) at 8/1 · then Celtic Druid (IRE), Mystic Rose (IRE)
What we said: 13-runner competitive handicap with 5+ credible contenders (Celtic Druid, Rich Belief, Porsche Lad, Sutton Hoo, Tero D'rosa) and no runner offering genuine value vs its fair price
1m2f150y · Standard · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Reynir (4/6)
Won by: Police Gazette (USA) at 5/1 · then Reynir (IRE)
What we said: Reynir is clearly best on form/going but priced almost exactly at its fair odds (4/6 vs 54% fair), no market mispricing to exploit
1m2f150y · Standard · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Duvessa (8/11)
Won by: Duvessa (IRE) at 8/13F · then Rocket Robyn (GB)
What we said: Duvessa and Forthill dominate the market (52%/32% fair) but Forthill's 92d layoff is a red flag while Duvessa's form is thin, leaving no clean edge in a small maiden
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
