What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
6 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 1
Class 3 · 0m7f3y · Good To Firm · 5 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: The Balearic Sun (4/1)
Won by: The Balearic Sun (IRE) at 7/4 · then Zarakova (GB)
What we said: bookie overlay flags genuine mispricing and Beckett is red-hot (30% last 14d) with a deep, proven T+J course combo (21% from 910) backing the tongue-strap booster
Class 5 · 1m113y · Good To Firm · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Kitaro Kich (12/1)
Won by: Trio (GB) at 11/4F · then Eutropia (GB), Letsbeatsepsis (GB)
What we said: Tight 9-runner handicap with 4 horses (Eutropia, Kitaro Kich, Trio, Penfolds Grange) rated within 3lb, no runner shows a genuine price overlay against fair%
Class 5 · 1m2f17y · Good To Firm · 4 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Booziebrunch (4/1)
Won by: Perfect Scoundrel (GB) at 11/8F
What we said: 4-runner handicap with three legitimate form claims (Booziebrunch, Perfect Scoundrel, Hello Cotai) all priced right around their fair odds, no genuine overlay
Class 4 · 1m4f6y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Carnival Day (2/1)
Won by: Damascus Steel (IRE) at 7/2 · then Epictetus (IRE)
What we said: Major steamer (5.0→3.0) with proven form and a sire that thrives on good-to-firm, a clear market-confidence signal in this handicap
Class 4 · 0m7f3y · Good To Firm · 5 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Atmosphere (13/8)
Won by: Uppercase (GB) at 5/2 · then Cherry Cobbler (GB)
What we said: 5-way blanket cover, three horses (Cherry Cobbler, Atmosphere, Musical Angel) all have legitimate claims and Atmosphere's steam has already pushed its price under fair value
Class 6 · 7f3y · Good To Firm · 8 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Piazza (9/2)
Won by: Ice Cube (IRE) at 6/5F · then Credit Forgedd It (IRE), Karisma's Angel (GB)
What we said: Top-rated by 6lbs, drawn low (favourable bias), Starspangledbanner/Dark Angel line loves this fast ground, and carries a bookie overlay vs exchange
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
