Epsom — 30 July 2026

Class 5 · 1m2f17y · Good To Firm · 6 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Qitaal (11/4)

Won by: Bobacious (GB) at 4/1 · then Magical Merlin (IRE)

What we said: six-runner apprentice handicap where the top of the market (Qitaal) is a serial placer still winless in six and wearing first-time cheekpieces, while the RP's alternative (Oj Lifestyle) is drawn on the disadvantaged rail stall and switching to a 7% claimer combo yard cold recently — too many caveats stacked on the two market leaders to trust either price, and the rest (Golden Circet, Show Biz Kid, Magical Merlin) are all fair-priced round their true form rather than obviously overpriced

Class 4 · 0m7f3y · Good To Firm · 9 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Benefacta (4/1)

Won by: Camarda Rc (GB) at 13/2 · then Out Of This World (GB), Cool King (GB)

What we said: Draw 1 puts him right on the favoured side of the turn in a race where inside stalls are clearly helped, and his form figures (783) show a colt still finding his feet but sharpening with every start; the sire line also flags a fast-ground preference that matches today's firm surface. At 4/1 with a recent-form trajectory pointing forward, I make him roughly a 24% chance in a race where the market has him closer to 18%.

Class 5 · 1m4f6y · Good To Firm · 5 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Twilight Moon (12/1)

Won by: Dream Harder (IRE) at 10/1 · then Two Plus Two (IRE)

What we said: Two wins from her last five starts and proven form over today's trip and going, she gets the best of the draw at a course where the middle stalls avoid being buried on the rail or carried wide, and the yard is in strong recent form. I make her around a 15% chance at 12/1, well clear of what the market is pricing in, even allowing that a fifth last time out is the obvious blemish.

Class 4 · 1m0f113y · Good To Firm · 4 ran

Our bet: Celestra (11/2)

Won by: Trio (GB) at 9/4

What we said: Seven pounds clear of this field on Racing Post figures and freshest of the four having run just 19 days ago, she also races from the ideal low draw at a track where this trip starts on or just before the home turn. Kingman's fast-ground pedigree fits the quick surface perfectly, and I make her closer to a 30% chance than the 14% her price implies, which is a big enough gap to take on a short-priced yet unconvincing market leader in Trio.

Class 6 · 0m7f3y · Good To Firm · 7 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Credit Forgedd It (11/10)

Won by: Eyes Front (IRE) at 11/4 · then Sun Of Dolly (GB)

What we said: Seven-runner handicap with no clean angle: Credit Forgedd It's solid recent form is already reflected in a near-fair price, Koffee And Kale's class edge is undercut by a cold yard, poor recent finishing (7th last time) and a bookie-above-exchange flag, and Eyes Front's steam comes with a draw disadvantage that muddies the read

Class 5 · 0m6f3y · Good To Firm · 7 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Elvetham (11/2)

Won by: Sugar Sugar (IRE) at 6/1 · then Twirler (GB)

What we said: Draw 1 gives this gelding first run into the Epsom turn, and the profile of four thirds and a second in his last six shows a horse who keeps knocking on the door in this exact grade; I make him roughly a 20% chance at 11/2, well clear of his market-derived fair price, and the steady market support into 13/2 backs up a genuine placed-form horse finally landing in a race where the draw and fast ground both work for him.