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Home/Archive/Ffos Las — 14 July 2026

Ffos Las — 14 July 2026

What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.

6 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 5

14:30 Dandara Homes EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)

We named the winner

Class 4 · 0m6f0y · Good · 5 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Jaan Ki Tukri (1/2)

Won by: Jaan Ki Tukri (IRE) at 4/7F · then Louis The Fifth (IRE)

What we said: odds-on favourite Jaan Ki Tukri looks clearly best but is priced shorter than its fair odds (implied ~67% vs fair 60%), and no other runner shows genuine value

15:00 Golwg Gwendraeth Nursery Handicap Stakes

Did not win

Class 6 · 0m5f0y · Good · 5 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Devon Angel (11/1)

Won by: Tallahassee Lassie (GB) at 1/1F · then Our Fella (IRE)

What we said: RP rates her 20lb clear of her official mark with a tongue-tie fitted and a genuine bookie overlay (+3.0 vs exchange), suggesting the market underrates the upside despite a modest formline

15:30 Diplomat Hotel Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)

We named the winner

Class 4 · 0m5f0y · Good · 7 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Star Velocity (10/11)

Won by: Star Velocity (GB) at 4/5F · then Queen Sana (GB)

What we said: odds-on favourite dominates a small maiden field, no value case against it or for the chasing pack

16:05 Preventapest Handicap Stakes

We named the winner

Class 5 · 7f80y · Good · 9 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Tokyo Joe (11/10)

Won by: Tokyo Joe (GB) at 10/11F · then Spirit Of The Bay (IRE), Kaleidoscope Eyes (IRE)

What we said: competitive 9-runner Class 5 handicap with no clear price value; Tokyo Joe is the standout form horse but 11/10 offers no edge over fair, and no other runner combines solid form with a mispriced tag

16:40 Dandara, Beautiful New Homes In Carway "Confined" Handicap Stakes (For Horses Which Have Not Won A Flat Race In 2026)

We named the winner

Class 6 · 1m2f0y · Good · 9 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Homeland (9/4)

Won by: Homeland (GB) at 2/1F · then Praise Indeed (GB), Gert Lush (IRE)

What we said: 9-runner Class 6 handicap with 4+ live contenders (Havana Tobouggaloo, Homeland, Gert Lush, Madame Passant) all overlapping in form, and no runner's price clears its fair% by a genuine margin

17:14 Dandara, Find Your Perfect New Home Handicap Stakes

We named the winner

Class 5 · 1m3f209y · Good · 4 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Liveinthelight (3/1)

Won by: Liveinthelight (GB) at 6/4

What we said: 5-runner handicap with 4 runners rated 66-70, prices already sit close to fair odds, no genuine mispricing

Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record