14:10 Ascona Ladies Fuelled By Fashion Handicap Stakes
Did not winClass 5 · 0m6f0y · Good · 6 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Sixtygeesbaby (10/11)
Won by: Safari Dream (IRE) at 100/30 · then Army Bugler (IRE)
What we said: Backs up a course-and-distance win just 10 days ago under the same rider, repeating the exact same trip and ground today, and his form figures (508551) show a horse in genuine form with the scope to confirm that under a rising mark. He's proven himself the best-rated runner in this small field and the quick turnaround suggests the yard sees more to come from him right now.
14:45 Ascona Ladies Chic Fashion Handicap Stakes
We named the winnerClass 6 · 0m7f80y · Good · 7 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Oviedo (4/6)
Won by: Oviedo (IRE) at 1/2F · then Searchingtheblues (GB)
What we said: Won last time out over today's course, trip and ground just 9 days ago, and his form figures (00-991) show a horse finally putting it together with the yard hot right now (1-1 last 14 days). The Lope De Vega sire line is suited by good ground, which he gets today, and the booking of a 5lb claimer for a proven stayer at this trip adds a touch of extra scope.
15:20 Ascona Ladies In Lace Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)
We named the winnerClass 4 · 0m7f80y · Good · 3 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Korbut (8/13)
Won by: Korbut (GB) at 8/13F
What we said: Korbut is clearly the one to beat on a strong string of placed efforts (252222, 25222 at this trip) and holds a clear form/class edge over two rivals returning from 120+ day absences, but she's never raced on good ground in seven starts and is already trading short enough at 8/13 that there's no working number for me at that price; Likeness and Reader are unproven fitness unknowns at 7/2 in a three-horse field, which isn't enough to build a case around either.
15:55 Ascona Ladies Fashion And Style Handicap Stakes
PlacedClass 6 · 0m7f80y · Good · 12 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Willowinghurn (3/1)
Won by: Golden Mabel (GB) at 40/1 · then Arvana Belle (IRE), Willowinghurn (GB)
What we said: Twelve run in a bottom-tier handicap where at least half a dozen types can win: Willowinghurn's recent placed run and quick turnaround give her the strongest recent profile, but her 850568 figures show no when it comes to hitting the frame let alone winning, Diamond Ali's course-and-distance win came 74 days ago and he fits the negative long-layoff band, and Medyg's steam ignores that he's never raced on good ground and joins a yard running 0-6 lately. With rain forecast to ease the ground further and no single runner clearing the others on today's conditions, this is a race to watch rather than back.
16:30 Ascona Fabulous Ladies Classified Stakes
Did not winClass 6 · 1m2f0y · Good · 11 ran
Our bet: Typeface (7/2)
Won by: City Escape (IRE) at 12/1 · then Gert Lush (IRE), Charencey (IRE)
What we said: Perfect course form figures of 1-1-3 mark him out as a course specialist, and connections Ian Williams have a strong 20% strike rate here with an a/e of 1.18 backing that up. He's dropped back to today's trip fresh off a clear finishing third last time on good-to-firm, the ground his sire Wootton Bassett is bred to relish, and the first-time tongue strap is a sensible tweak on a fundamentally progressive sort.
17:02 Ascona Ladies Race Day Elegance Handicap Stakes
PlacedClass 6 · 1m3f209y · Good · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Atalanta Mist (7/2)
Won by: Dream Of Ithaca (GB) at 6/1 · then Atalanta Mist (GB), Adrian (GER)
What we said: the write-up made a claim the racecard does not support, so this pick was withheld
