14:10 Guinness Irish EBF Nursery Handicap
We named the winner0m7f0y · Yielding To Soft · 7 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Seven Nation Army (9/4)
Won by: Seven Nation Army (GER) at 13/8F · then Banks Of The Boyne (IRE)
What we said: the ground has just switched from Good to Yielding to Soft and this is the one runner in the field specifically flagged for a dam-line that excels in this softer going, adding a fresh conditions edge on top of already having experience of today's trip and going. He was staying on for second last time out fresh from a break, fitness is clearly there, and the O'Brien yard is firing at 24% in the last fortnight.
14:45 Arthur Guinness Irish EBF Corrib Fillies Stakes (Listed)
We named the winnerClass 1 · 0m7f0y · Good · 10 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Pivotal Attack (7/1)
Won by: Pivotal Attack (GB) at 3/1 · then Meriden (GB), La Brodeuse (GB)
What we said: The highest-rated horse in the race on RP figures, she's a three-year-old still working out her form with a leading contender's placings behind her and clear signs of progress rather than plateauing; stepping up in trip/class off a big index figure and coming into the race as one of the two market steamers, I'd put her chance nearer 18-20% against a fair price implying just 11%.
15:20 Guinness Open Gate Brewery Novice Steeplechase (Grade 3)
Did not winClass 1 · 2m2f54y · Good · 7 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Soir De Garde (5/1)
Won by: Shadow Paddy (IRE) at 5/2F · then Lady Bluebird (IRE)
What we said: Mullins/Townend combo, third-favourite drifting into serious market support after a taking win last time out, and this build-up in market money reflects a stable that clearly fancies this run; I make him a genuine 20-22% chance at a price still paying close to 5/1, which is fair value given the yard's strike-rate in this grade. The step up to this trip and track suits a horse who's progressed with racing, and the recent effort under Townend showed real improvement in jumping fluency.
15:55 Guinness Novice Hurdle
Did not win2m4f156y · Good · 8 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Flying Ace (12/1)
Won by: Midnight Jet (IRE) at 6/5F · then Roc Dino (FR)
What we said: Three wins on the bounce (4-4111) shows a horse still finding his form and improving fast, and Kevin Healy's 7lb claim takes him down to a workable book weight for a big field; I make him a 15% chance in a race where the market is loading almost two-thirds of the book onto the top two, leaving him overlooked as the stronger of Elliott's two runners on recent trajectory. At 12/1 that's meaningfully bigger than his true shot given the improving profile.
16:30 Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap (Grade 3)
Did not winClass 1 · 2m0f11y · Good · 20 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Solness (12/1)
Won by: Putapoundinthejar (IRE) at 10/1 · then Thisistheway (IRE), Gameball (IRE), Ragmans Corner (IRE)
What we said: 20-runner handicap with a genuine top-weight favourite already fully priced up, and 4+ others (Casheldale Lad, Ndaawi, Laafi, El Cairos) carrying near-identical claims with fitness question marks; no runner's price clearly beats its true chance
17:05 Rockshore Refreshingly Irish Handicap
Did not win1m0f98y · Yielding To Soft · 13 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Merlin The Wizard (17/2)
Won by: Cala Bonita (IRE) at 8/1 · then Zaraahmando (IRE), Earls (IRE)
What we said: Back-to-back wins in his last two starts and quick to load again just two days after his latest victory, this is a horse in red-hot form; as a Camelot colt he's bred to relish this rain-softened ground, and the booking of a jockey with a strong course record (a/e 1.18) backs up the pattern. I make him roughly a 14-15% chance at odds implying far less, and that gap is worth taking on a horse still fresh and progressive.
17:40 Guinness 0.0 Handicap
Did not win1m4f0y · Yielding To Soft · 17 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Rodeo Blues (4/1)
Won by: Faro Island (GB) at 10/1 · then Day Trader (FR), Baila Conmigo (IRE), Berto Ramirez (GB)
What we said: 17-runner handicap over 1m4f with several plausible types (Rodeo Blues on a hot streak, Arch Enemy back-to-back wins, multiple first-time headgear gambles), no single price stands out as clearly wrong against the field's genuine spread of chances
18:12 Guinness Time Flat Race
Did not win2m2f0y · Good · 17 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Flashy Fred (15/2)
Won by: Run Ted Run (IRE) at 5/4F · then Sir Vinny (IRE), Dieux Diligence (IRE)
What we said: In a field stuffed with total unknowns, this is the only runner carrying an official rating and the only one with proven course-and-trip form, having placed second, second and third in his last three starts including this exact 2m2f test on good ground. I make him around a 15% chance given that experience edge, which stacks up well against a field of first-timers and long-absentees who are all speculative by comparison. He's fresh off a quick 14-day turnaround too, suggesting the yard are happy with him.
