What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
8 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 4
Class 4 · 0m5f7y · Good To Firm · 3 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Call Nicki (9/4)
Won by: Call Nicki (IRE) at 5/4F
What we said: 4-runner nursery with contradictory draw-bias notes and all four runners priced close to their fair odds, no genuine market disagreement
Class 6 · 0m5f7y · Good To Firm · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Classy Clarets (11/10)
Won by: Classy Clarets (IRE) at 1/1F · then Great Profit (IRE), Sixcor (GB)
What we said: Classy Clarets looks the clear best form horse but at 11/10 he's already priced tighter than his fair odds (7/5, 42%), leaving no value in backing the obvious answer
Class 5 · 1m0f68y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: My Mate Roger (1/6)
Won by: My Mate Roger (IRE) at 2/13F · then Matter Of Britain (GB)
What we said: My Mate Roger is clearly best but priced 1/6 (85% implied) against a fair 74%, no value at that price in a tiny 6-runner field
Class 2 · 1m0f68y · Good To Firm · 5 ran
We passed. Likely winner: I'll Be Back (3/1)
Won by: I'll Be Back (IRE) at 3/1 · then English Oak (GB)
What we said: five-runner Class 2 handicap with at least four genuine claims (Oak's weight/draw offset by form, Salam Dubawi short of fair value, Rhoscolyn/I'll Be Back only value via bookie-overlay flags) and no single price clearly compensates for the uncertainty
Class 4 · 1m0f68y · Good To Firm · 5 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Kaleido (5/2)
Won by: Inspired (IRE) at 2/1F · then Break The Bank (GB)
What we said: 5-runner handicap with three legitimate contenders (Kaleido, Inspired, Jannas Journey) at similar prices/fair%, conflicting draw-bias data given, no isolating angle
Class 6 · 0m6f6y · Good To Firm · 7 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Tarlac (11/4)
Won by: Doon The Glen (GB) at 11/4 · then Tarlac (IRE)
What we said: Best speed figure in the field, favoured high draw, and a strong market steamer (17% shorter) all point the same way
Class 6 · 0m6f6y · 7 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Rain Cap (6/1)
Won by: Doon The Glen (GB) at 11/4 · then Tarlac (IRE)
What we said: favoured high draw (5), useful recent form (-02374), 5lb claim, and price of 6/1 is a touch longer than fair (20/3), backed by a bookie overlay
Class 6 · 1m5f16y · Good To Firm · 5 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Alnayef (11/10)
Won by: Desert Quest (IRE) at 11/2 · then Time Turner (GB)
What we said: 5-runner handicap with contradictory draw-bias data and no runner offering value vs fair% (favourite Alnayef near fair, Time Turner near fair)
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
