13:50 Betway Leigh Handicap Stakes
Did not winClass 5 · 1m2f42y · Good · 6 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Brighton View (5/6)
Won by: Lc Tiffen (GB) at 80/1 · then Saxophonist (IRE)
What we said: Comes into this on the back of a genuine upward curve, finishing 2-1 in his last two starts and showing he handles this trip and this going, and Oisin Murphy takes over having ridden the horse to that recent win. The extra weight reflects a rating that has been climbing for good reason, and with only five rivals to beat in a modest Class 5 he looks the one they all have to catch.
14:25 Betway Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3)
We named the winnerClass 1 · 1m2f42y · Good · 5 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Sallaal (4/6)
Won by: Sallaal (IRE) at 1/2F
What we said: Untouchable form figures at the trip (211) and on this exact going (121), a mark of OR119 and a trainer firing at 34% with the stable clearly primed for this target race. The Frankel stamp thrives on quick ground and Haydock's good/firm surface plays right to that strength, and nothing else in this small field matches his combination of class, fitness and course suitability.
15:00 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Dick Hern Stakes (Listed Race)
PlacedClass 1 · 0m7f212y · Good · 11 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Fallen Angel (10/11)
Won by: Calendar Girl (GB) at 13/2 · then Pacific Mission (GB), Fallen Angel (GB)
What we said: Rated a stone clear of this field on official figures and the only confirmed front-runner in the race, so she should get an uncontested lead into a stiff Haydock straight, and the drop back in trip after a break suits a mare whose best form (1110) came fresh. Good going plays to her sire's stamp (best on fast/good) and Haggas has a strong record readying horses fresh off a rest.
15:34 Betway Ashton Heath Handicap Stakes
PlacedClass 3 · 6f212y · Good · 7 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Crimson Spirit (2/1)
Won by: Pellitory (GB) at 3/1 · then Crimson Spirit (GB)
What we said: Form figures read 4-2-1 across the last three starts, a clear upward trajectory into this, and Marquand takes the ride for a yard firing at 33% over the last fortnight with a strong course record (15%, a/e 1.06) to match. Carrying top weight is a fact of being rated above this field, not a knock, and the resulting mark still leaves him the most solid form horse in a workable seven-runner field.
16:09 Betway Tanners Bridge Handicap Stakes
Did not winClass 5 · 0m6f212y · Good · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Norfolk Blue (11/4)
Won by: Norcross Brow (GB) at 4/1 · then Crafty Blue (IRE), Galba (GB)
What we said: This is a messy 10-runner handicap where four horses arrive with genuine claims: Norfolk Blue is the strongest form horse on paper with a string of places and a sire cross that suits today's quick ground, but he hasn't actually won in six starts; Norcross Brow arrives on the back of a course-and-distance-winning sequence and a recent victory; Berlinetta and Flyta are both fresh off wins or near-wins of their own. Nothing at the current prices cleanly separates that quartet, and Norfolk Blue's steamer just confirms the market already rates him the one to beat without offering anything extra to work with.
16:40 Betway Capital City Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier)
Did not winClass 3 · 0m7f212y · Good · 14 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Lost Signal (7/2)
Won by: Arctic Thunder (IRE) at 7/2 · then Inspired (IRE), Yorkshire (IRE)
What we said: Fourteen runners, two first-time headgear gambles, a returning-from-91-days shot in Star Anthem, and a market that's drifted on half the field (Witch Hunter, Financer, King Casper, Triple Double A) tells you this book hasn't settled; Lost Signal heads the market off a break of his own and Cosi Bello has to shoulder 143lb top weight, so neither the favourite nor the class horse gives me a clean read. With Mountain Cat unproven in this grade off a big layoff and Yorkshire, Arctic Thunder and Inspired all plausible without standing out, this is exactly the crowded, unresolved handicap type that has bled this system before.
17:10 Betway Apprentice Handicap Stakes
Did not winClass 5 · 0m7f212y · Good · 8 ran
Our bet: Suggy (7/4)
Won by: Home Hero (IRE) at 7/2 · then Sunshine And Roses (GB)
What we said: Two wins from the last two starts and a solid third before that, and with five of the other seven marked as pace horses today this looks a strongly-run race that plays into the hands of a hold-up type just finding his stride. Charles Hills has him fit and ready off an 8-day turnaround, and the 5lb claim takes the sting out of a big weight, leaving the form and manner of victory to do the talking.
