What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 1 · we named the winner in 1
2m · Good To Firm · 11 ran
Our bet: Luciole Des Bordes (2/1)
Won by: Luciole Des Bordes (FR) · then Brave Lady (IRE), Santa Paula (IRE)
What we said: clear market steamer with strong Mullins yard form (T+J combo 31%) and solid recent placed form, fair odds line up with a genuine market move
2m2f160y · Good To Firm · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Penny Express (4/1)
Won by: Imarajan (IRE) at 7/2 · then Chantilly Wings (IRE), All Night Revival (IRE)
What we said: 8-runner maiden hurdle with 4+ credible contenders (Penny Express, Imarajan, Codger's Rock, All Night Revival) and no runner shows genuine value vs FAIR% once the vig is stripped out
2m4f · Good To Firm · 14 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Stede Bonnet (6/1)
Won by: Paul's Dream (IRE) at 9/2 · then Gameball (IRE), Stede Bonnet (IRE)
What we said: 18-runner handicap hurdle, top weight and multiple fitness-unknown returners create a genuine lottery with no isolating angle
Class 1 · 3m1f80y · Good To Firm · 14 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Uncle Pat (7/2)
Won by: Solitary Man (IRE) at 14/1 · then Perceval Legallois (FR), Pride Of Place (IRE)
What we said: 17-runner Listed handicap chase with 3+ credible contenders (Uncle Pat, Native Speaker, Raglan Road, Solitary Man) and no price standing out as a clear overlay
3m1f80y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Franciscan Rock (11/8)
Won by: Charlie Luciano (IRE) at 4/1 · then Scalpnagoon (IRE)
What we said: Top-rated Franciscan Rock is clearly best on figures but priced tighter than its own fair odds (no value), while the actual overlay flags (Centreofattention, Kevin's Pride, Tonaghneave Well) all carry weak recent form — no horse combines edge in form AND price
2m2f160y · Good To Firm · 16 ran
We passed. Likely winner: High Notions (17/2)
Won by: Boston Bobby (IRE) at 12/1 · then Bowgate Street (IRE), Granlahan (IRE), Chesterbaylad (IRE)
What we said: 19-runner low-grade handicap, wide-open form with no single runner offering a clear price edge vs FAIR%
3m180y · Good To Firm · 15 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Down Around (6/1)
Won by: Knocknagoran Lady (IRE) · then Thewaybackhome (IRE), The Little Yank (IRE)
What we said: 19-runner marathon handicap, four fitness-unknown absentees including the top-rated selection, no reliable single angle
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
