What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
8 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 3
2m2f200y · Good · 15 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Kasper Hauser (7/4)
Won by: Kasper Hauser (GB) at 6/5F · then Rosarian (IRE), Direct Approach (IRE)
What we said: 15-runner maiden hurdle with a short-priced favourite already fully priced (implied ~36% vs its own 28% fair%), no runner elsewhere offers a genuine edge
2m2f200y · Good · 15 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Mysilverriverfeale (9/4)
Won by: Mysilverriverfeale (IRE) at 9/4 · then Facile Ocean (IRE), Press The Button (IRE)
What we said: 16-runner maiden hurdle, form lines too sparse/unproven across the board to isolate a genuine edge
2m2f200y · Good · 16 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Malbas (25/1)
Won by: Dream Shaper (IRE) at 11/1 · then Barrogstown Girl (IRE), Dark Berkshire (IRE), Sneddy Eddie (IRE)
What we said: 16-runner handicap hurdle, wide-open with 4+ horses (Malbas, King Of The Greys, Circus Act, Whispering Willow) holding legitimate claims and none clearly overpriced vs my read
2m2f200y · Good · 16 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Bowgate Street (6/1)
Won by: O'grady Cracker (IRE) at 14/1 · then Thirsty Work (GB), Rare Times (IRE), Dearg Mor (IRE)
What we said: 16-runner handicap hurdle, form is tightly bunched with no runner's price clearly beating my read of its true chance
2m2f200y · Good · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Laxxio (7/2)
Won by: In For The Night (IRE) at 17/2 · then Magic Day (IRE), Andys Flame (GB)
What we said: tightly-matched 10-runner handicap, no horse's price clearly beats my read of its chance, several with legit claims (Laxxio, In The Trenches, Andys Flame, You Done Well)
3m0f100y · Good · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Rusty Harkness (4/5)
Won by: Rusty Harkness (GB) at 5/6F · then Clone Cross (GB), Giorgia Rose (FR)
What we said: odds-on favourite Rusty Harkness looks clearly best but is priced at fair value already (4/5, fair% 47%), leaving no edge, and the rest are longshots with no standout case
2m4f85y · Good · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Tullybeg (12/1)
Won by: Golden Temple (IRE) at 12/1 · then Rexem (IRE), Milan Forth (IRE)
What we said: 11-runner competitive handicap chase with 4+ legitimate claims (Tullybeg, Linden Arden, Milan Forth, Costacurta, Rexem) and no runner's price clearly beats my read of its chance
2m4f85y · Good · 14 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Love Like This (5/2)
Won by: Luimneach (IRE) at 15/2 · then My Cullen (IRE), Hurricane Honey (IRE)
What we said: 14-runner handicap chase, three withdrawals reshuffled the market, and no runner's price clearly beats my read of its chance
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
