16:07 WTW Willis Maiden Hurdle
Did not win2m0f26y · Good To Yielding · 17 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Dawn Coming (5/2)
Won by: Minella Cyclone (IRE) at 8/1 · then Astelia (IRE), Glengarriff (IRE)
What we said: Four runners carry genuine claims at similar prices with nothing decisive separating them: Dawn Coming's placed-but-never-won sequence, How's Ellie's fall last time from the Mullins yard, Ivatt's solitary promising run for Elliott, and Astelia's string of seconds capped by a pulled-up effort. In a 17-runner maiden hurdle with this much unresolved form bunched at the top of the market, there's no single case strong enough to back with conviction.
16:42 Séan Daly Memorial Handicap Hurdle
Did not win2m0f26y · Good To Yielding · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Cocofred (3/1)
Won by: My Trump Card (IRE) at 20/1 · then Hopeful Hero (IRE), Hopes Are High (IRE)
What we said: Too many live claims stacked close together: Cocofred returns as a class winner last time but carries a two-month absence and no recorded run on this exact good-to-soft ground, Splashing Out arrives in red-hot recent form (3-1-0-1) with a spotless jumping CV, and Hopeful Hero and Hopes Are High both have solid recent placed form of their own — nothing separates the top four enough to lean on one at these prices.
17:15 Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle
Placed2m3f150y · Good To Yielding · 12 ran
Our bet: Speed For Fun (11/10)
Won by: Boo Radley (IRE) at 6/1 · then Speed For Fun (FR), Pretty Wild (IRE)
What we said: Second in a bumper-turned-hurdle debut over a shorter trip, this Mullins runner steps up in distance to 2m3f which should suit given the stamina-laden pedigree, and he owns the fastest habitual early pace figure in a field short on confirmed front-runners. He's completed 2 of 3 jumps starts and returns quickly (19 days) on the same going that produced his best form.
17:45 Séan Hughes Memorial 110 Series Final Handicap Hurdle
Did not win3m0f200y · Good To Yielding · 14 ran
Our bet: Mighty Berkshire (9/4)
Won by: Smallcraftwarning (IRE) at 18/1 · then Cooladdi (IRE), Ilbdare (IRE)
What we said: Clear top-rated form in this field (00-412, PR114) with a solid second last time out, and the fact line shows him already placed third at today's course, trip and going, so the step up in distance is far from uncharted water. Nine from nine completed jumps starts and a useful 7lb claim taking the sting out of top weight make him the one with the fewest questions in a scattered 14-runner handicap.
18:15 Midland Veterinary Beginners Steeplechase
We named the winner2m4f95y · Good To Yielding · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Fou De Toi (2/1)
Won by: Fou De Toi (FR) at 2/1F · then Los Blanco (FR), Siege Of Carthage (IRE)
What we said: Too many live claims bunched at the top: Fou De Toi is fresh off a place run for the powerful Mullins/Townend axis dropping back in trip, Los Blanco carries the best form figures in the race with a recent second and a step up to today's longer trip, and Manoir De Mirande arrives in career-best form after three straight placed efforts including a win. With three genuine winning chances stacked closely at the top of the market and nothing concrete separating them at these prices, there's no single case strong enough to back with conviction.
18:45 Kilsaran Handicap Steeplechase
Did not win2m4f95y · Good To Yielding · 13 ran
Our bet: Pinot Gris (5/2)
Won by: Soldante (IRE) at 11/2 · then Butter Fingers (IRE), Watch The Weather (GB)
What we said: Clear top-rated horse in this field by 8lb+ over anything else here, with a spotless 14-from-14 jumping record and solid recent form (2nd last time at this same fair 2m4f95y trip on the same good-to-yielding ground). The step back 2f and unchanged ground look to suit, and there's little in this field with his class or reliability at the fences.
19:15 Clarke's Electrical Contractors, Castletown Geoghegan Beginners Steeplechase
Did not win3m0f0y · Good To Yielding · 5 ran
Our bet: My Great Mate (evn)
Won by: Begger (IRE) at 66/1
What we said: Clear class superior in this beginners field on PR (125 v 122 best of the rest), a perfect 9/9 jumping completion record and consistent placed form (4/24-3) mark him out as the one to beat under Paul Townend for the Mullins yard. The step up to 3m suits a stamina-laden profile after finishing third over 18f last time, and with only Chanceawetmorning offering a genuine each-way threat, the case for the market leader holds up on merit rather than name alone.
