What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 2
1m0f20y · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Oklahoma (4/7)
Won by: City of Dubai (IRE) at 8/1 · then Francillon (GB)
What we said: small maiden field dominated by a very short favourite (Oklahoma 4/7) offering no value, and the only real market signal (bookie overlay) sits on an unraced 16/1 outsider
1m0f20y · 3 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Res Ipsa (13/8)
Won by: Straight Up (IRE) at 15/8
What we said: 5-runner maiden-type race with three horses (Res Ipsa, Straight Up, Loughrea) clustered on form and no runner showing genuine value vs its fair price; Bold Style's overlay is offset by 178-day layoff and poor course J/T stats
1m0f20y · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Red Autumn (8/1)
Won by: Johnny Soda (IRE) at 4/1 · then Vishaya (IRE), Glitter And Glory (IRE)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
1m0f20y · 8 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Grey Leader (12/1)
Won by: Molto Amichi (IRE) at 10/11F · then Earls (IRE), Howyoulikethat (IRE)
What we said: steamed from 19/1 to 13/1 (32% shorter) with a bookie overlay vs exchange, suggesting genuine market confidence despite a modest recent form line
1m3f73y · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Vauntingly (6/4)
Won by: Vauntingly (IRE) at 13/8F · then White Sand Beach (USA), Hey Stella (IRE)
What we said: heavily steamed maiden with strong favourite already at short odds (6/4) offering no value, and firm ground plus 11 fillies with thin form makes the rest a genuine guess
1m3f73y · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Highwayman (5/2)
Won by: Highwayman (FR) at 5/2 · then Yogini (IRE), Loch Gamhna (IRE)
What we said: Camino Lad favourite at 11/8 with fair 36% offers no value, and no other runner's price compensates for a 9-runner maiden with unclear form
1m3f73y · 14 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Point Cartwright (2/1)
Won by: Chicago Moon (IRE) at 11/2 · then Canon Law (IRE), Point Cartwright (IRE)
What we said: Strong market support (steamer from 4.5→3.0) plus bookie overlay, in-form runner-up/third last twice, proven at trip with solid trainer/jockey combo
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