What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
8 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 0
2m4f85y · Good · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Dawn Coming (9/4)
Won by: Early Dawning (TUR) at 2/1 · then Tyson Fury (GB), Dawn Coming (IRE)
What we said: favourite Early Dawning is fairly priced for a 196-day-layoff risk, and no other runner shows a genuine price edge vs FAIR% (bookie overlays are all confined to long-shots with <5% fair chance)
2m4f85y · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Spring Waltz
Won by: Run For Mahler (IRE) at 12/1 · then Murcia (FR)
What we said: 24-runner mares hurdle mob-match with no reliable class separation, several fitness-unknown returners, and firm ground volatility
2m4f85y · Good · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Murcia (10/11)
Won by: Run For Mahler (IRE) at 12/1 · then Murcia (FR)
What we said: 6-runner handicap where RP itself flags low confidence and 4 runners (Murcia, Diamond Du Berlais, Birdie Or Bust, Grainne A Chroi) have genuine claims; the top-rated Murcia is odds-on with no price value vs fair
2m4f85y · Good · 14 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Malikanna (13/2)
Won by: Luck Between Us (IRE) at 33/1 · then Koeur A Prendre (FR), Inchidaly Copper (IRE)
What we said: 14-runner competitive handicap with 5-6 legitimate contenders (Swelltime, King Ferdinand, Malikanna, Luck Between Us, Koeur A Prendre) and no single price standing out as genuine value
2m4f85y · Good · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Global Skies (3/1)
Won by: Arcland (IRE) at 11/1 · then Jupiter Du Gite (FR), Only For Our Man (IRE)
What we said: 10-runner handicap with 4+ legitimate contenders (Tuche, Arcland, Global Skies, Market Ready) and no runner's price clearly overlaid beyond generic bookie margin
2m1f0y · Good · 15 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Secret Rock (4/1)
Won by: Lips Freedom (GER) at 5/1F · then Midnight Eagle (IRE), Claude (IRE)
What we said: 15-runner competitive handicap hurdle, 3+ horses with legitimate claims (Claude, Kamino Bello, Kabylia, Secret Rock, Party President) and no price stands out as clear overlay-driven value
2m1f0y · Good · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Inishtearaght (2/1)
Won by: Caislean Gear (IRE) at 2/1F · then Emergency Man (IRE), Bravemans Call (IRE)
What we said: Bumper/NH flat race with 6 of 8 runners unraced debutants; no reliable form angle, and neither market leader shows value vs fair%
2m1f · Good · 15 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Flashy Fred (11/4)
Won by: Farney Bridge (IRE) at 33/1 · then Flashy Fred (IRE), Eleen Alana (IRE)
What we said: 16-runner ladies pro/am bumper-type field full of unraced/lightly-raced horses and long absentees, genuinely unreadable
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
