What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
8 races · we bet 2 · we named the winner in 2 · results held for 6
2m1f0y · Good · 11 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Sea Of Dubka (3/1)
Won by: Sea Of Dubka (IRE) at 5/4F · then Minella Buoy (GB), Misty Cove (IRE)
What we said: the write-up made a claim the racecard does not support, so this pick was withheld
2m1f0y · Good · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Gino Bella (9/2)
Won by: Autumn Twist (IRE) · then Moylussa (IRE), Gino Bella (IRE)
What we said: the write-up made a claim the racecard does not support, so this pick was withheld
2m6f180y · Good · 6 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Diamond Du Berlais (4/5)
Won by: Diamond Du Berlais (FR) at 4/9F · then Brother Walfrid (IRE)
What we said: She's clear on class, a 12lb-plus rating advantage over this field with the classiest form line (8164-3) including a course success, and her jumping figures (14 of 16 completed) show she gets the trip and fences without fuss. Stepping up another 2.5 furlongs today suits a mare whose finishing efforts have generally strengthened at the trip, and Mullins' string has her fresh enough for this grade in soft opposition.
2m7f100y · Good · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Affinity Rock (15/8)
Won by: Ballystone (IRE) at 4/1 · then Fort Dino (FR)
What we said: Affinity Rock looks the classiest sort here on best form (2/4 last time out, solid course-and-distance placings, mare's weight allowance) but she's coming back after 91 days off and that band carries a genuine caution rather than a plus, so I can't back her market position with real conviction; Where's My Jet has the profile on paper but two flat efforts in a row (60P-00) argue against trusting him fresh into fences, and the rest of the field is either drifting in the market (Happy Me, Heroes Rise, Themanintheanorak) or unproven enough over fences that nothing here justifies a stake.
2m7f100y · Good · 13 ran
Our bet: Western Model (4/1)
Won by: Ladies Well (IRE) · then Cullenwaine (IRE), Tropical Image (IRE)
What we said: Won last time out over course/trip and ground identical to today's conditions, with a spotless 23-from-23 jumping record and a form line trending sharply upward (25-831). The proven stamina and jumping reliability at this exact trip/going combination gives it the clearest, most specific case in a genuinely messy 13-runner puzzle.
2m4f180y · Good · 11 ran
Our bet: Illtakehimmyself (5/1)
Won by: Miners Bridge (IRE) at 13/8F · then Tippin And Tappin (IRE), Kings Jet (IRE)
What we said: Won last time out at this exact course, trip and going, and the form line reads 2-2-3-1 into that win, a horse clearly progressing rather than just holding a rating. Nine completed jumps starts from nine shows a reliable jumper, and the 5lb claim keeps the weight workable off a fair mark.
2m1f0y · Good · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Femme Magnifique (3/1)
What we said: Femme Magnifique looks the one to beat on form back at the course and trip that saw her win last time, but with Costacurta racing into form for a red-hot yard, Ballybrittas building through the levels, and Stuntman Steve fitted with cheekpieces off a break, this nine-runner handicap has too many live threats at workable prices to lean on one with real conviction.
2m1f0y · Good · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Killeedy (6/4)
What we said: Killeedy heads the market on the strength of a solid course-and-distance-and-going run last time and a yard in form, but the first-time tongue strap is exactly the kind of intent-signal that can mean either improvement or a hidden issue, and nothing here amplifies her case beyond what the price already reflects; Iron Sword and Rocky Alfonso both arrive with no recorded run on good ground after facing soft/yielding last time, muddying the two market alternatives, and this bumper field is too light on proven form to isolate one confident angle.
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