What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 1 · we named the winner in 2
Class 6 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Emerald Bay (5/2)
Won by: Emerald Bay (IRE) at 9/2 · then Hamdani Mokhater (GB), Tiger In The Tree (GB)
What we said: Class 6 low-grade nursery, first-time headgear on three runners and thin form all round, no reliable angle
Class 3 · 1m2f0y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Cloud Forest (4/1)
Won by: Amazonica (IRE) at 4/1 · then Cloud Forest (GB)
What we said: Strong Saeed bin Suroor stable form (50% last 14 days) plus a genuine bookie overlay vs exchange price suggests the market underrates this lightly-raced sort
Class 6 · 1m3f179y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Lenny's Spirit (18/1)
Won by: Ottoman (IRE) at 13/8F · then Joanna Hiffernan (GB)
What we said: competitive 6-horse handicap with three runners (Betelgeuse, Lenny's Spirit, Trojan Truth) rated within a point of each other, no single price compensates for the uncertainty
Class 6 · 5f · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Dottie Diamond (2/1)
Won by: Dottie Diamond (GB) · then Dreambird Dolly (GB)
What we said: small 6-runner sprint handicap where the top two form picks (Bear Of Saints, Dottie Diamond) are already priced close to fair, and the only flagged value (Rainbow Sorbet's overlay) is a bottom-rated 20/1 outsider with no each-way cover in a sub-8 field
Class 6 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Musical Soldier (7/4)
Won by: Gal (IRE) at 100/30 · then Musical Soldier (IRE)
What we said: 6-runner Class 6 handicap, market leader (Musical Soldier) already priced near fair with no overlay, and the "rating gap" horse (Gal) is heavily discounted by the market for good reason (poor recent form, 0% trainer form)
Class 5 · 1m2f0y · Good To Firm · 4 ran
Our bet: Hot Silk (10/3)
Won by: Melody De Vega (IRE) at 7/4
What we said: Consistent recent form, trainer white-hot (27% 14d), sire well-suited to fast ground, and a genuine bookie overlay vs exchange all point the same way
Class 6 · 0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 11 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Marisitta (3/1)
Won by: Manhattan Chute (IRE) at 11/2 · then Bullington Bry (GB), Rogue Rebellion (GB)
What we said: Class 6 field with 4+ runners on similar modest form (Sir Rodney, Henry Tudor, Rogue Rebellion, Marisitta) and no price stands clearly out as overlaid vs FAIR%
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
