17:55 Irish Stallion Farms Ebf Maiden Fillies' Stakes (gbb Race)
Did not winClass 4 · 0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 5 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Fairy Well (15/8)
Won by: Coat Of Red (IRE) at 5/6F
What we said: a well-bred Dark Angel filly whose sire is a proven fast-ground sprinting influence, and with the going holding firm at Leicester that's exactly the profile that improves for today's surface; I make her around a 38% chance at 15/8, above the market's devigged view. Her sole run reads as solid form (4th) and the step up to a stiffer 6f test on quick ground should suit a sire whose stock thrive when the ground rides fast.
18:27 Bsl-It A Decade In The Saddle Nursery Handicap Stakes
Did not winClass 5 · 0m5f0y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Amber Ocean (15/8)
Won by: Pj's Corner (GB) at 10/1 · then My Maria (IRE)
What we said: Won last time out and rated the best of these on figures, she returns quickly (13 days) in good order and is bred to relish this fast Good-to-Firm surface as a Mehmas filly. She's already proven over this course and distance, and with the rest of the field either unproven at this trip or carrying cold recent form, she looks the one to beat at a fair price.
19:02 Leicester Racecourse Ideal Self-hire Wedding Venue Novice Stakes (gbb Race)
Did not winClass 4 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 4 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Moving Shadow (5/6)
Won by: Siwa Oasis (IRE) at 9/4
What we said: a 4-runner novice with the well-drawn favourite (Moving Shadow) fairly priced given a 271-day absence and unknown fitness, and no other runner (Siwa Oasis in modest recent form, Yordan with no form line, Winston's Oath a 70/1 outsider whose dam-line struggles on this going) offers a price that clearly undersells its chance
19:37 Remembering Mike Furlong Handicap Stakes
Did not winClass 6 · 0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 6 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Melissa Honey (13/8)
Won by: Calafrio (GB) at 2/1
What we said: Won last time out and again three starts back, this filly is peaking at the right time and her sire (Showcasing) and damsire (Slade Power) lines both point squarely at today's good-to-firm ground. She's shouldering a workable 9-7 off a rising profile, and with the strongest recent form in the field I make her closer to a 40% chance than the market's 36% fair read at 13/8.
20:10 Join Racing Tv Today Handicap Stakes
Did not winClass 6 · 1m3f179y · Good To Firm · 4 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Clocker (5/6)
Won by: Captain Cairney (GB) at 5/2
What we said: four-runner Class 6 with three runners (Clocker, Al's River, Captain Cairney) rated within a pound of each other and Clocker's short price already reflecting its fitness/form edge, leaving no runner whose price clearly undersells its chance
20:40 Nelson Panoramic Restaurant Dining Packages From Just £90 Handicap Stakes
PlacedClass 5 · 1m0f53y · Good To Firm · 5 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Spiritoftheblues (5/4)
Won by: Cancelled (IRE) at 100/30 · then Spiritoftheblues (GB)
What we said: Tops the figures by a clear 3-6lb margin and her form line (18-723) shows a filly rounding into peak shape with two placed efforts in her last two starts, backed by solid course/trainer-jockey numbers (15% course strike, a/e 0.92). I make her around a 45% chance in this small, draw-neutral field, a touch above her market-implied price, and she's already proven over today's trip and going.
