What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
8 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 4
0m6f110y · Good · 11 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Star Of State (1/3)
Won by: Star Of State (IRE) at 1/3F · then Not You Too (IRE), Someday Somewhere (IRE)
What we said: Star Of State is a dominant 1/3 favourite with fair odds already matching the market (62%), no value on offer, and rest of field are longshots with no real angle
0m7f50y · Good · 12 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Sea Of Rain (2/1)
Won by: Ballyskeagh (IRE) at 7/4F · then Star Glory (IRE), Sea Of Rain (IRE)
What we said: 12-runner 2yo maiden with 3-4 legitimate contenders (Sea Of Rain, Ballyskeagh, Star Glory, Jezzie Bea) and no bookie-overlay flag on any of the market leaders
7f50y · Good · 14 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Bear Right (10/3)
Won by: Ardadslosttheplot (IRE) at 7/1 · then Dynamic Force (IRE), Bear Right (IRE)
What we said: 14-runner apprentice handicap, wide-open with 4+ live claims (God Knows, Faoladh, Comfort Line, Bear Right) and no standout price edge
1m0f0y · Good · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Bellesque (6/5)
Won by: Bellesque (IRE) at 1/1F · then So Lovely (USA)
What we said: 6-runner fillies maiden with two clear market leaders (Bellesque 41% fair, Sarah's Choice 33% fair) and no price disagreement I trust enough to oppose them
1m0f0y · Good · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Aviatrice (3/1)
Won by: Loughrea (IRE) at 100/30 · then Aviatrice (IRE)
What we said: 6-runner competitive handicap, 3+ live contenders (Aviatrice/Loughrea/How'sthebai) with no runner showing genuine value vs fair% beyond noise
Class 1 · 1m1f · Good · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Geryon (7/4)
Won by: Geryon (IRE) at 11/10F · then Cowardofthecounty (IRE)
What we said: Group 3 with 4 legitimate contenders (Adelaide River, Geryon, Isaac Newton, Snellen) and every runner priced shorter than its de-vigged fair%, so no genuine market overlay anywhere
1m2f · Good · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Marmeladova (7/2)
Won by: Marmeladova (IRE) at 3/1 · then Blackjack Hills (IRE), Daler (IRE)
What we said: 9-runner handicap with 4+ live contenders (En Or, Daler, Unterberg, Marmeladova) and no runner showing a clean price edge vs fair%
1m5f · Good · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Killyclogher Rose (2/1)
Won by: Cooley's Mist (IRE) · then Ob La Di (IRE)
What we said: 6-runner handicap with 4 legitimate contenders (Ob La Di, Derry Lad, Cala Bonita, Killyclogher Rose) and no price clearly overlaid against fair%
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
