What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
7 races · we bet 1 · we named the winner in 2
1m0f0y · Good · 5 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Shakespeare (5/6)
Won by: Green Dreamer (IRE) at 5/1 · then Shakespeare (GB)
What we said: Dominant market leader with genuine form (3rd last run) and A P O'Brien/Ryan Moore backing in a weak, form-light field
0m7f57y · Good · 12 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Sea Of Rain (5/2)
Won by: Sea Of Rain (IRE) at 9/4F · then Citrus Springs (USA), Miss Twilight (IRE)
What we said: proven form figures (4223) at this trip, drops in class/maiden with course experience and dam-line suits today's good/firm ground, offering value over her 23% fair price
Class 1 · 0m7f57y · Good · 6 ran
Our bet: Alpha (4/11)
Won by: Alpha (IRE) at 1/6F · then Dancing Destiny (IRE)
What we said: clear market leader with form figures of 21, top trainer/jockey combo and fair odds of 77% make her much the best of a small field
Class 1 · 0m7f57y · Good · 6 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Aix La Chapelle (4/5)
Won by: Florida Bay (IRE) at 7/2 · then Folsom Blues (IRE)
What we said: 6-runner Group 3 where the favourite is priced almost exactly at its own fair% (51%), leaving no real value gap despite being the likely best horse
1m1f0y · Good · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Kilcrea Rock (7/2)
Won by: Dark Viper (GB) at 9/1 · then Manton Bay (IRE), Glyndwr (IRE)
What we said: 4+ runners (Kilcrea Rock, Manton Bay, Wild Sapphire, Harmani) have legitimate recent-form claims and none price out clearly against fair%
1m4f180y · Good · 4 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Keepsgettingbetter (3/1)
Won by: Wyman (IRE) at 11/4
What we said: 4-runner rated race with three legitimate claims (Wyman, Keepsgettingbetter, Lord Aus) plus a fitness-unknown market player (Handshake off 174d), no clean value read
1m7f0y · Good · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Jurality (9/2)
Won by: Tatum (IRE) at 2/1F · then Friary Road (IRE), Miss Gitana (IRE)
What we said: 9-runner staying handicap with 5+ live claims (Friary Road, Trubshaw, Party Dress, Tatum, Jurality all have plausible recent form), no single price clearly beats its fair%
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
