What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
9 races · we bet 0 · we named the winner in 0 · results held for 8
Class 6 · 1m4f · Standard · 9 ran
Won by: Mister Daydream (IRE) at 4/1 · then Sapphire Dream (IRE), Moonlit Cloud (GB)
What we said: Class 6 seller/handicap with 11 runners, no standout: Heart Sign shortening but stepping up in trip is a genuine question, Cezarro drifting badly, market too conflicted to trust.
Class 3 · 7f1y · Standard · 10 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Cavalier (5/2)
Won by: Perfect Nation (IRE) · then Drum Bay (GB), Cavalier (IRE)
What we said: top-rated form horse steaming from 5/1 to 7/2 with proven yard/jockey combo, and step up to 7f plays to his profile
Class 3 · 7f1y · Standard · 9 ran
Won by: Victory Gold (IRE) · then Romanza (GB), Apulia Bay (IRE)
What we said: Victory Gold shortening hard makes sense on class-drop but at 6/4 there's no value, while Romanza (top-rated, Frankel form horse) sits mid-draw with three drifting rivals around him and no single angle stands out as a priced edge.
Class 6 · 1m7f169y · Standard · 9 ran
Won by: Home Secretary (GB) at 7/2 · then Femme Fatale (GB), La Trinite (GB)
What we said: 9-runner Class 6 handicap with genuine market conflict (La Trinite steaming in from bad draw, Worlington top-rated but drawn well at short price, 3+ credible contenders) and no single clean angle.
Class 4 · 5f6y · Standard · 8 ran
Won by: Law Of Average (GB) at 6/1 · then Havana Blast (GB), Sandscreendeliverd (GB)
What we said: market is split three ways (Nogo's Dream steaming into 3.5, Havana Blast the RP top-rated on good draw, Michaela's Boy drifting despite top weight) with no single angle standing clear in a competitive 9-runner Class 4 handicap.
Class 4 · 5f6y · Standard · 9 ran
Won by: Tan Rapido (GB) at 6/1 · then Dyrholaey (FR), Almaty Star (IRE)
What we said: Dyrholaey (steamer, top weight, low draw #5 neutral) vs Solar Edge (drifter, best rating, but wide draw 8 and jockey a/e poor) is too close to call, and 3+ others have live claims.
Class 5 · 1m1y · Standard · 12 ran
Won by: Rogue Defence (GB) · then Cherringham (GB), Mythological Star (IRE)
What we said: Rogue Defence is a legitimate market steamer but drawn 9 (wide, disadvantaged) at 6/4 in a 12-runner novice, and this is exactly the low-value favourite-in-a-crowded-field shape that's burned my 50-59% band badly.
Class 6 · 1m1y · Standard · 10 ran
Won by: Fallacious Promise (GB) · then Henfield (GB), Athenian Spirit (IRE)
What we said: Fallacious Promise is favourite on figures but drawn 9 (disadvantaged), Whazzimo drifting from 5/1, and no standout combines form+draw+market here.
1m2f · Standard
What we said: Ghayah and Pharitz Lahia dominate the market at short odds but 6-runner handicap with no draw bias at this trip, too many plausible outcomes to isolate a genuine edge.
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
