What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.
8 races · we bet 1 · we named the winner in 2
Class 5 · 7f1y · Standard · 5 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: King of Montenegro (9/1)
Won by: Greek Symphony (GB) at 4/1 · then Lord Ragnar (IRE)
What we said: Tops the official ratings, sits in the favoured low draw, and carries a genuine bookie-overlay signal (+1.0 vs exchange) that the market may be underpricing despite the 51-day break
Class 5 · 1m5f · Standard · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Educator (5/1)
Won by: Senor Cortez (IRE) at 7/4F · then Mister Daydream (IRE), Educator (GB)
What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick
Class 4 · 7f1y · Standard · 9 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Aphra Behn (evn)
Won by: Ardad Steve (IRE) at 5/2 · then Nakila Sun (GER), Quest For Glory (GB)
What we said: self-consistency reruns converged on a different horse than the original pick
Class 6 · 7f1y · Standard · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Split Elevens (6/1)
Won by: Dannick (GB) at 2/1F · then Majestic Wave (GB), Rosemary's Rose (IRE)
What we said: 14-runner Class 6 handicap with 5-6 horses holding legitimate claims (Dannick, Hour By Hour, Majestic Wave, Split Elevens, The Organiser) and no single price clearly overlaid beyond marginal exchange gaps
Class 5 · 6f1y · Standard · 7 ran
Won by: Zooella (IRE) at 3/1 · then Pilgrim's Progress (GB)
What we said: tip generation failed after retry (incomplete response)
Class 6 · 1m1y · Standard · 10 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Manton Road (9/2)
Won by: Love You More (GB) at 100/30 · then Nutcracker (GB), Manton Road (GB)
What we said: Class 6 field with 5+ runners carrying legitimate claims (Nutcracker, Love You More, Raqraaq, Celtic John, Manton Road) and conflicting market signals (Nutcracker drifting despite top rating, Raqraaq/Celtic John steaming but already close to fair%) — no single overlay clearly isolates a winner
Class 6 · 1m1y · Standard · 9 ran
Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Henfield (5/1)
Won by: Henfield (GB) at 7/2F · then Zaltalla (FR), Freedom Bay (GB)
What we said: Steamer with a genuine bookie overlay, second-best on RP figures, in-form (LTO 2nd), quick 7-day turnaround and a fair draw
Class 6 · 1m4f1y · Standard · 13 ran
Our bet: Sapphire Dream (9/4)
Won by: Sapphire Dream (IRE) at 11/4 · then Make It Up (IRE), Belle Of Kt (GB)
What we said: Strongly steaming (5.5→3.3) with a rock-solid recent trend (3rd, 2nd last two starts) and a quick 7-day backup that suggests the yard is targeting this spot
Outcomes on this page are read from the official result, not from our own settlement records. How we measure ourselves · The full record
