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Home/Archive/Naas — 3 August 2026

Naas — 3 August 2026

What we said before each race, and what won. Published that morning at 8am and never edited.

7 races · we bet 1 · we named the winner in 4

14:17 TRM Ironxcell For Energy Race

We named the winner

0m5f205y · Good · 6 ran

Our bet: Likedbymike (11/10)

Won by: Likedbymike (IRE) at 4/9F · then Focaccia (IRE)

What we said: Sits well clear of this weak six on solid, updated figures (PR95, SR89) and a placed-heavy recent sequence, and today's field carries two runners back from serious absences (Port Arthur 291d, Bear On The Run 353d) plus a yard-form horse in Tolebi who is out of sorts, thinning out the genuine opposition. No draw edge to worry about at this trip, and the covering ground and prevailing conditions look to suit this filly's proven CD-type profile better than most in the race.

14:47 Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap

Did not win

0m5f205y · Good · 11 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Amiata (4/1)

Won by: Red Evolution (IRE) at 9/2 · then Gotta Catch'em All (IRE), Gavoo (IRE)

What we said: self-consistency reruns didn't converge on the original pick

15:17 Matchbook Supporting Local Racing Apprentice Handicap

We named the winner

0m5f0y · Good · 15 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Dandy Land (9/2)

Won by: Dandy Land (IRE) at 15/2 · then Steel Magnolia (IRE), Step Back In Time (IRE)

What we said: Fifteen apprentices in a shallow-class handicap where the ratings are bunched from the low 40s to low 60s and nothing separates the leading names at the weights; Dandy Land heads the market on solid placed form but is only a fair chance in a race that's wide open, Jackandthefox and Platino Bianco are both stepping up despite modest marks, and Tawaazon's the classiest on paper but is conceding lumps of weight from a cold yard. Too many plausible types at short-ish odds for the size of the field to make a confident single-horse case.

15:47 Bet 20 Get 40 With Matchbook Handicap

Placed

0m7f0y · Good · 16 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Bear Right (9/2)

Won by: Zheleznaya Dama (USA) at 12/1 · then Bear Right (IRE), Profit Surge (IRE), Lough Leane (IRE)

What we said: Sixteen runners in a competitive handicap with no standout angle to lean on: Bear Right's placed-every-time form (U73433) makes her the one to note, but she's already favourite and doesn't clear the bar for a bet at the price, while Chester Nimitz, Volendam and Rappell all have live but unconvincing cases in a race this deep. The two first-time headgear runners (Rappell, Profit Surge) add uncertainty rather than clarity, and the draw is confirmed neutral here so there's no shortcut through the field.

16:17 Watch All Racing Live At Matchbook Handicap

Did not win

1m2f84y · Good · 11 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Daler (9/2)

Won by: Diamond Exchange (IRE) at 17/2 · then Nakasero (IRE), Pavilion End (GB)

What we said: This is a genuinely bunched heat with Daler's improving 1-2-3 form trend offset by top weight, Hamiyan and My Girl Grace both fancied on fast ground, and Genoah and Letiza both holding recent placed efforts — five runners with credible claims and nothing in the form book cleanly separates them at the prices on offer. Covert Legend's market move is noted but his solid form line (442-44) doesn't justify chasing the steam into a crowded contest.

16:47 Irish EBF Ballyhane Stakes (Median Sires Series)

We named the winner

0m5f205y · Good · 11 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Livenka (10/11)

Won by: Livenka (GB) at 4/6F · then Maeda Matsu (IRE), South Dakota (IRE)

What we said: Livenka comes into this on the back of a facile-looking win last time out, following two solid placed efforts (3-3-1), and that upward form curve for a G M Lyons-trained filly with Colin Keane up is exactly the pattern you want in a two-year-old stakes race. She holds the best profile ratings (PR75/SR79) of anyone with proven form, and stall 2 is a neutral draw at this course so there's nothing there to worry about.

17:20 Hurling For Cancer On August 24th Fillies Maiden

We named the winner

1m0f0y · Good · 18 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Never The Same (13/8)

Won by: Never The Same (IRE) at 3/1 · then Nautic Star (IRE), Xirivella (IRE)

What we said: Never The Same heads the market on solid grounds (improving form figures, a sire that wants this faster surface, and a in-form Joseph O'Brien yard) but at 13/8 the price already demands more than the form book fairly supports, and none of Nautic Star, Venosa or Acula close that gap enough to make backing them at their prices a good bet in an 18-runner maiden.

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