14:30 Irish EBF Median Sires Series Fillies Maiden
Placed0m7f0y · Good · 18 ran
Our bet: Silver Kiss (6/4)
Won by: Maeda Matsu (IRE) at 7/1 · then Star Glory (IRE), Silver Kiss (IRE)
What we said: Twice placed in two starts (3rd both times) against a field of mostly unraced or well-beaten types, and she steps back into the same 7f trip that has already produced two competitive efforts. Dermot Weld and Chris Hayes have her spot-on for a maiden of this depth, and she looks clearly the classiest filly in an 18-runner field otherwise light on proven form.
15:00 Matchbook Exchange Irish EBF Fillies Maiden
Did not win0m5f205y · Good · 16 ran
Our bet: Argentarius (2/1)
Won by: Timeless Tale (IRE) at 14/1 · then Film Set (USA), Pink Venom (IRE)
What we said: The only filly in the field with genuine placed form, finishing 2nd on debut before a competitive 4th in a stronger race, and today's drop back to 6f plays into a pedigree profile that looks sharper over the shorter trip. Shane Foley takes over from a yard/jockey combo showing 16% strike at the C&D with the stats backing rather than just implying class above this maiden field. The ground swings from good-soft back to good, which should suit rather than hinder.
15:30 Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden
We named the winner0m5f205y · Good · 16 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Zoar (10/11)
Won by: Zoar (USA) at 11/10F · then Capital Of Pride (IRE), Roeillaun (IRE)
What we said: Zoar heads the market at odds-on off a solid second at this course, trip and going, but that repeat-conditions case is already the reason he's favourite, and in a sixteen-runner maiden stacked with unexposed types there isn't enough extra to back a short-priced runner with real conviction; Roeillaun's recent second and quick backup adds another layer of doubt rather than clarity.
16:00 Tally-Ho Stud Irish EBF Ballyogan Stakes (Group 3)
Did not winClass 1 · 0m5f205y · Good · 8 ran
We passed. Likely winner: First Instinct (7/4)
Won by: Chantez (IRE) at 28/1 · then Soul Love (GB), Dancing Saxon (IRE)
What we said: Three fillies go into this Group 3 with genuine claims and nothing at the prices separates them: First Instinct arrives with the strongest scope from the Haggas yard but her last two efforts (2nd, then a blank) don't scream career-best form; Havana Anna is a proven course specialist with three wins from three at Naas but was beaten out of sight (7th of 10) only 36 days ago; Soul Love steps up in trip off a facile win and carries the best recent pace figures in the field. With three fair-priced runners this close together and no standout edge for any of them, there's no bet I'd back my own money on here.
16:30 Big Evs At Tally-Ho Handicap
Placed0m5f0y · Good · 19 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Simmering Seas (3/1)
Won by: Steel Magnolia (IRE) · then Whatswrongnow (IRE), Little Roy (IRE), Simmering Seas (IRE)
What we said: Nineteen runners in a competitive sprint handicap is too many bodies for one selection to clear the bar, and with Simmering Seas, Tawaazon, Dandy Land and Steel Magnolia all boasting plausible recent-form cases at broadly similar prices, nothing separates cleanly enough to back with conviction. Simmering Seas looks the pick of the improving types on a quick 9-day turnaround and solid recent placing, but that's a shadow read, not a bet in a field this size and this level.
17:00 Hartes Group Apprentice Handicap
Placed1m3f0y · Good · 18 ran
We passed. Likely winner: Millhone (10/3)
Won by: Wie Wunderbar (GB) at 7/1 · then Sinbad My Dad (IRE), Millhone (IRE), Yquem (IRE)
What we said: Eighteen runners in a handicap is exactly the shape of race built to be unbettable, and nothing here rises above "one of several plausible types": Millhone's form figures include a recent second but arrive off a 30-day layoff with cheekpieces added for the first time, Amavasya carries a proven negative flag for returning from a 79-day break, and Wie Wunderbar's improving 362 figures are matched by a moderate market position rather than a standout case. With apprentices aboard across the board and no draw bias to lean on at this course and trip, there's no single angle sharp enough to isolate one horse from the pack at the price on offer.
17:30 TRM BIOACTIVE Energy Boost Handicap
Did not win1m2f110y · Good · 10 ran
Our bet: Diamond Exchange (4/1)
Won by: Minella Rockett (IRE) · then Port Of Spain (IRE), Ob La Di (IRE)
What we said: Won last time out at this exact course, distance and going (Naas, 10.5f, good) and her form figures (318751) show she's racing to a solid level right now. The repeat of identical conditions for a filly clearly on a going/trip sweet spot is the strongest specific angle in this field, and Shane Foley stays aboard for continuity.
