13:30 Irish EBF Auction Series Fillies Maiden
We named the winner5f180y · Good · 15 ran
Our bet: Roeillaun (1/1)
Won by: Roeillaun (IRE) at 5/4F · then Ana Morello (IRE), Marcescence (IRE)
What we said: Clear top form line in this maiden (6723), with placed efforts each start and a third at this same trip/ground just 13 days ago, giving her the strongest recent evidence in a field otherwise short on proven form. She's a habitual pace presence (P, 2.25) which should let her race close to a workable spot, and the market's sharp shortening reflects real substance rather than noise.
14:00 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery Handicap (Birdcatcher Series)
Did not win5f180y · Good · 10 ran
Our bet: Supreme Lord (5/2)
Won by: Lars Soldier (IRE) at 11/2 · then Howlin Wolf (IRE), Lady Patrona (GB)
What we said: Won last time out over this exact course, distance and going just 9 days ago, and the form figures (3551) show a colt on the upgrade who's already proven he handles today's conditions. The quick turnaround suggests the yard has him firing, and top weight is already reflected in his rating rather than a knock against him.
14:35 Navan Racing Festival Early Bird Tickets On Sale Now Handicap
Placed5f · Good · 19 ran
Our bet: Steel Magnolia (4/1)
Won by: Irish Rumour (IRE) at 11/2 · then The Love Machine (IRE), Steel Magnolia (IRE), Simmering Seas (IRE)
What we said: Won last time out at this course, trip and ground just 13 days ago, and the form line 434721 shows a filly finding form fast with a fourth win-or-place in a row. Same conditions today, consistent trajectory, and the biggest field-based fair chance on offer.
15:10 Christmas Parties At Navan Racecourse On 6th & 13th December Handicap
Did not win5f · Good · 8 ran
Our bet: Amiata (7/2)
Won by: Moltophino (IRE) at 11/4F · then Namiid (IRE), Thunderbear (IRE)
What we said: Won impressively last time out over an extra furlong and now drops to this minimum trip, which should suit a speedy sort by Dark Angel even more; a lightly-weighted 3yo with Colin Keane up for the powerful G M Lyons yard, this looks the strongest form in the race. The recent placings either side of that win (5,1,4,8,1) show solid, consistent ability rather than a one-off fluke.
15:45 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden
Placed1m30y · Good · 21 ran
Our bet: Nautic Star (9/2)
Won by: Flower Forest (IRE) at 4/1 · then Divine Legend (IRE), Nautic Star (IRE)
What we said: Consistently placed in a progressive sequence (4-2332) with the runs at today's trip and going backing that up, and the yard/jockey combo (12% at a/e 0.84) is solid without being a reason on its own. In a maiden field this deep and level, a filly who keeps finishing in the frame at this trip is the safest into the market I can find.
16:20 Return Of The Jumps At Navan Racecourse September 19th Handicap (Div I)
Placed1m2f10y · Good · 24 ran
Our bet: Make The Tide (2/1)
Won by: African Affair (IRE) at 40/1 · then Make The Tide (IRE), Nephin Mountain (IRE), Mare Crisium (IRE)
What we said: Won impressively last time out at this course just three days ago and the yard is in red-hot form, with the step up to 10f looking a natural progression for a filly still on the up (866901 profile). At 2/1 she's clearly the one to beat on ability in a race where nothing else's form reads as strongly, even in a stacked 24-runner field.
16:55 Return Of The Jumps At Navan Racecourse September 19th Handicap (Div II)
We named the winner1m2f10y · Good · 24 ran
Our bet: Millhone (7/2)
Won by: Millhone (IRE) at 4/1 · then Connova (IRE), Nibras Rainbow (IRE), Thegooseiscooked (IRE)
What we said: Consistent recent form (792232) shows a filly on the up, with a clear second last time out over 14f at this course before dropping back four furlongs to a trip that should suit given her placed effort at today's distance last season. First-time blinkers add a sharpening angle, and at 9-12 she's feasibly well treated in a race where few others show genuine progression.
17:30 Lynn Lodge Stud Maiden
We named the winner1m2f10y · Good · 23 ran
Our bet: Handani (2/1)
Won by: Handani (IRE) at 13/8F · then Sakoku (IRE), Royal Bones (IRE)
What we said: Chris Hayes takes over on the Weld-trained runner who was only just touched off in third last time at this trip and track over course and distance, with cheekpieces added today for extra focus; his early pace habit (P style) lets him track the leaders and he holds the strongest recent form figures in the field.
