Newbury — 23 July 2026

Class 4 · 0m7f0y · Good To Firm · 4 ran

Our bet: Victory Gold (5/2)

Won by: Waasil (GB)

What we said: clear market leader with strong recent form (2401) and trainer in hot 67% form, fair odds line up with genuine chance in a small field

Class 4 · 0m6f110y · Good To Firm · 7 ran

Our bet: Lorraine (5/4)

Won by: Lorraine (GB) at 1/1F · then Art Of Life (GB)

What we said: Frankel filly with a damsire (No Nay Never) fast-ground boost, drawn well, and trained by Gosden (56% 14d form) in a field of otherwise unexposed debutantes

Class 5 · 0m6f0y · Good To Firm · 8 ran

Not a bet. The horse we made most likely: Always Perfect (9/4)

Won by: Waistcoat (GB) at 5/1 · then Silver Wraith (GB), Raffles Angel (GB)

What we said: Improving front-running form (45331, latest a win) plus in-form trainer/jockey combo make this the clear class edge in a fast-ground-friendly race

Class 5 · 2m0f0y · Good To Firm · 3 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Campeona (4/9)

Won by: Campeona (GB) at 2/7F

What we said: 3-runner handicap where the fav is oddson and priced roughly in line with her true chance (my read ~72% vs fair 73%, no edge), and her price shows the bookie-above-exchange pattern that's historically a losing signal

Class 5 · 1m4f0y · Good To Firm · 4 ran

Our bet: Sarangpur (6/4)

Won by: Sarangpur (IRE) at 5/4F

What we said: Improving front-running form (two recent wins then a solid 2nd) makes him clear best of only four runners, with no bookie-drift red flag unlike all three rivals

Class 5 · 1m2f0y · Good To Firm · 8 ran

We passed. Likely winner: Baloo's Blues (7/1)

Won by: Raintown (IRE) at 15/2 · then Caph Star (GB), Just An Hour (IRE)

What we said: 8-runner handicap with 4+ live claims (Just An Hour, Caph Star, Raintown, Baloo's Blues) and no price clearly beats its fair%